RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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President of baseball ops: Derek Falvey · GM: Thad Levine

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.16× league · TAB +14.1
+14.1TAB — talent above budget
+13.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-1.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
35%dead money %8th/30
0.600win %4th/30
18.6roster fWAR4th/30
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$137Mpayroll $M10th/30

2020: made playoffs · 36–24. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFByron Buxton 39GJake Cave 22GLaMonte Wade Jr. 4G
LFEddie Rosario 51GJake Cave 7GLaMonte Wade Jr. 3G
RFMax Kepler 44GJake Cave 12GMarwin Gonzalez 8G
SSJorge Polanco 53GEhire Adrianza 9G
2BLuis Arraez 31GMarwin Gonzalez 21GEhire Adrianza 5G
3BJosh Donaldson 26GMarwin Gonzalez 23GEhire Adrianza 23G
1BMiguel Sanó 52GMarwin Gonzalez 14GLaMonte Wade Jr. 4G
STARTERSKenta Maeda 2.1WARMichael Pineda 1.1WARJosé Berríos 1.1WARRandy Dobnak 0.8WARRich Hill 0.7WAR
CRyan Jeffers 25GMitch Garver 22GAlex Avila 22G
DHNelson Cruz 52GEddie Rosario 4GBrent Rooker 2G
BULLPEN★ Taylor Rogers 9svTyler Duffey 12hSergio Romo 10hTrevor May 9hTyler Clippard 8hMatt Wisler 5hCaleb Thielbar 1hJorge Alcala 0h
CRyan Jeffers 25 · Mitch Garver 22 · Alex Avila 22
1BMiguel Sanó 52 · Marwin Gonzalez 14 · LaMonte Wade Jr. 4
2BLuis Arraez 31 · Marwin Gonzalez 21 · Ehire Adrianza 5
3BJosh Donaldson 26 · Marwin Gonzalez 23 · Ehire Adrianza 23
SSJorge Polanco 53 · Ehire Adrianza 9
LFEddie Rosario 51 · Jake Cave 7 · LaMonte Wade Jr. 3
CFByron Buxton 39 · Jake Cave 22 · LaMonte Wade Jr. 4
RFMax Kepler 44 · Jake Cave 12 · Marwin Gonzalez 8
DHNelson Cruz 52 · Eddie Rosario 4 · Brent Rooker 2
SPKenta Maeda 2.1 · Michael Pineda 1.1 · José Berríos 1.1 · Randy Dobnak 0.8 · Rich Hill 0.7
BP★ Taylor Rogers 9 · Tyler Duffey 12 · Sergio Romo 10 · Trevor May 9 · Tyler Clippard 8 · Matt Wisler 5 · Caleb Thielbar 1 · Jorge Alcala 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kenta Maeda 32 arb 112.1 3.1 +11.9
Nelson Cruz 39 FA-elig 531.9 12.0 +2.2
Byron Buxton 26 arb 391.3 3.1 +6.4
Max Kepler 27 arb 481.2 6.2 +2.4
Michael Pineda 31 FA-elig 51.1 10.0 -2.0
José Berríos 26 arb 121.1 4.0 +3.7
Josh Donaldson 34 FA-elig 280.9 18.8 -12.5
Randy Dobnak 25 arb 100.8 0.2 +5.6
Eddie Rosario 28 arb 570.8 7.8 -2.1
Tyler Clippard 35 FA-elig 260.8 2.8 +2.8
Tyler Duffey 29 arb 220.7 1.2 +3.9
Rich Hill 40 FA-elig 80.7 3.0 +2.1
Jorge Polanco 26 FA-elig 550.6 3.8 +0.7
Matt Wisler 27 arb 180.6 0.7 +3.5
Jake Cave 27 pre-arb 420.6 0.2 +3.9
Caleb Thielbar 33 pre-arb 170.6 0.2 +4.0
Miguel Sanó 27 arb 530.5 7.0 -3.0
Taylor Rogers 29 arb 210.5 4.5 -0.6
Luis Arraez 23 pre-arb 320.5 0.2 +3.4
Ryan Jeffers 23 – 260.4 0.1 +3.1
Trevor May 30 FA-elig 240.4 2.2 +0.7
Marwin Gonzalez 31 FA-elig 530.4 9.0 -6.1
Cody Stashak 26 pre-arb 110.3 0.2 +1.8
Jorge Alcala 24 pre-arb 160.3 0.2 +1.8
Ehire Adrianza 30 FA-elig 440.2 1.6 +0.0
Alex Avila 33 FA-elig 230.2 4.2 -2.9
Sean Poppen 26 pre-arb 60.2 0.1 +1.2
Devin Smeltzer 24 pre-arb 70.2 0.2 +1.1
Sergio Romo 37 FA-elig 240.1 4.8 -3.8
Homer Bailey 34 FA-elig 20.1 7.0 -6.3
Travis Blankenhorn 23 – 10.1 0.0 +0.5
Brent Rooker 25 – 70.0 0.1 +0.3
Willians Astudillo 28 pre-arb 80.0 0.1 +0.0
LaMonte Wade Jr. 26 – 160.0 0.1 -0.0
Danny Coulombe 30 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 +0.0
Cory Gearrin 34 FA-elig 1-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Aaron Whitefield 23 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Jake Odorizzi 30 FA-elig 4-0.0 17.8 -18.2
Edwar Colina 23 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.9
Ildemaro Vargas↔ ARI 28 – 10-0.1 0.0 -1.1
Lewis Thorpe 24 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.1 -2.1
Mitch Garver 29 pre-arb 23-0.4 0.2 -2.8
Zack Littell 24 pre-arb 6-0.4 0.1 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Kenta Maeda2.1
Josh Donaldson0.9
Tyler Clippard0.8
Rich Hill0.7
Matt Wisler0.6
Caleb Thielbar0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Kyle Gibson2.6
Jonathan Schoop2.1
Martín Pérez1.8
C.J. Cron1.3
Jason Castro1.1
Ryne Harper0.8

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$137.1M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Josh Donaldson347.158$18.8MFREE AGENT
Jake Odorizzi306.042$17.8MFREE AGENT
Nelson Cruz3912.082$12.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Pineda318.090$10.0MFREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez317.133$9.0MFREE AGENT
Homer Bailey3413.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Sergio Romo3711.097$4.8MFREE AGENT
Alex Avila3310.061$4.2MFREE AGENT
Rich Hill4010.127$3.0MFREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard3510.134$2.8MFREE AGENT
Cory Gearrin346.136$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Eddie Rosario284.120$7.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Sanó274.066$7.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Kepler273.152$6.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Rogers293.145$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Berríos263.044$4.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco263.024$3.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kenta Maeda324.000$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Byron Buxton263.160$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor May305.012$2.2MFREE AGENT
Ehire Adrianza305.131$1.6MFREE AGENT
Tyler Duffey293.074$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wisler273.042$725kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Dobnak253.059$174kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Mitch Garver292.045$230kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Arraez230.121$221kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cave271.072$218kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Stashak260.058$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Alcala240.016$181kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar331.131$174kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Smeltzer240.053$151kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
LaMonte Wade Jr.261.000$140kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Littell240.119$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Jeffers230.000$121kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willians Astudillo281.061$101kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lewis Thorpe240.054$93kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Poppen260.038$81kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Rooker250.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Whitefield230.000$47kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ildemaro Vargas281.028$28kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Coulombe302.054$19kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Blankenhorn230.000$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwar Colina230.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.