MIN⇄STL

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$1.6M net +0.0

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $26M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 2.3 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

John GantP·28y·R/R

+$6.7M+$6.7M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Evan SiskP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#483 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$1.6M net +0.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

J. A. HappP·38y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.46/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.