MIN⇄OAK

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Dakota ChalmersP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#97 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Fernando RodneyP·41y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.