RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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President of baseball ops: Derek Falvey · GM: Thad Levine

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.83× league · TAB +23.6
+23.6TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+21.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
12.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-1.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
6%dead money %1st/30
0.623win %4th/30
55.6roster fWAR3rd/30
+75surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$108Mpayroll $M19th/30

2019: made playoffs · 101–61. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFByron Buxton 86GMax Kepler 60GJake Cave 23G
LFEddie Rosario 124GLuis Arraez 21GMarwin Gonzalez 18G
RFMax Kepler 84GJake Cave 45GMarwin Gonzalez 44G
SSJorge Polanco 142GEhire Adrianza 24GLuis Arraez 8G
2BJonathan Schoop 113GLuis Arraez 49GEhire Adrianza 7G
3BMiguel Sanó 91GMarwin Gonzalez 40GEhire Adrianza 24G
1BC.J. Cron 117GMarwin Gonzalez 21GEhire Adrianza 20G
STARTERSJosé Berríos 4.4WARJake Odorizzi 4.3WARMichael Pineda 2.6WARKyle Gibson 2.6WARMartín Pérez 1.8WAR
CMitch Garver 82GJason Castro 78GWillians Astudillo 21G
DHNelson Cruz 114GJorge Polanco 11GMiguel Sanó 6G
BULLPEN★ Taylor Rogers 30svSam Dyson 23hTrevor May 17hSergio Romo 17hTyler Duffey 16hRyne Harper 12hTrevor Hildenberger 6hZack Littell 1h
CMitch Garver 82 · Jason Castro 78 · Willians Astudillo 21
1BC.J. Cron 117 · Marwin Gonzalez 21 · Ehire Adrianza 20
2BJonathan Schoop 113 · Luis Arraez 49 · Ehire Adrianza 7
3BMiguel Sanó 91 · Marwin Gonzalez 40 · Ehire Adrianza 24
SSJorge Polanco 142 · Ehire Adrianza 24 · Luis Arraez 8
LFEddie Rosario 124 · Luis Arraez 21 · Marwin Gonzalez 18
CFByron Buxton 86 · Max Kepler 60 · Jake Cave 23
RFMax Kepler 84 · Jake Cave 45 · Marwin Gonzalez 44
DHNelson Cruz 114 · Jorge Polanco 11 · Miguel Sanó 6
SPJosé Berríos 4.4 · Jake Odorizzi 4.3 · Michael Pineda 2.6 · Kyle Gibson 2.6 · Martín Pérez 1.8
BP★ Taylor Rogers 30 · Sam Dyson 23 · Trevor May 17 · Sergio Romo 17 · Tyler Duffey 16 · Ryne Harper 12 · Trevor Hildenberger 6 · Zack Littell 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nelson Cruz 38 FA-elig 1204.5 14.0 +0.9
José Berríos 25 arb 324.4 0.6 +13.6
Jake Odorizzi 29 FA-elig 304.3 9.5 +4.5
Mitch Garver 28 pre-arb 933.9 0.6 +12.3
Max Kepler 26 arb 1343.9 6.0 +6.7
Jorge Polanco 25 arb 1533.3 3.6 +7.3
Byron Buxton 25 arb 873.1 1.8 +8.3
Miguel Sanó 26 arb 1052.7 2.6 +6.3
Kyle Gibson 31 FA-elig 342.6 8.1 +0.5
Michael Pineda 30 FA-elig 262.6 8.0 +0.4
Taylor Rogers 28 arb 602.1 1.5 +5.4
Jonathan Schoop 27 FA-elig 1212.1 7.5 -0.6
Martín Pérez 28 FA-elig 321.8 3.5 +2.5
Luis Arraez 22 – 921.8 0.4 +5.5
Marwin Gonzalez 30 FA-elig 1141.5 12.0 -7.2
C.J. Cron 29 arb 1251.3 4.8 -0.7
Eddie Rosario 27 arb 1371.2 4.2 -0.2
Tyler Duffey 28 pre-arb 581.2 0.4 +3.5
Jason Castro 32 FA-elig 791.1 8.0 -4.3
Jake Cave 26 pre-arb 721.1 0.6 +3.0
Trevor May 29 arb 650.9 0.9 +1.9
Ryne Harper 30 pre-arb 610.8 0.6 +2.2
Randy Dobnak 24 – 90.8 0.1 +2.4
Ehire Adrianza 29 FA-elig 840.7 1.3 +1.0
Lewis Thorpe 23 – 120.7 0.2 +2.0
Zack Littell 23 pre-arb 290.6 0.2 +1.9
Sergio Romo↔ MIA 36 FA-elig 270.5 1.0 +0.6
Cody Stashak 25 – 180.5 0.2 +1.5
Devin Smeltzer 23 – 110.5 0.2 +1.4
Brusdar Graterol 20 – 100.1 0.1 +0.4
Matt Magill↔ SEA 29 FA-elig 280.1 0.3 +0.1
Mike Morin↔ PHI 28 – 230.1 0.1 +0.2
Ryan LaMarre 30 pre-arb 140.1 0.1 +0.2
Ryan Eades↔ BAL 27 – 20.1 0.0 +0.2
Trevor Hildenberger 28 pre-arb 220.0 0.6 -0.5
Sean Poppen 25 – 40.0 0.0 +0.0
Jorge Alcala 23 – 20.0 0.0 -0.0
Ronald Torreyes 26 arb 70.0 0.8 -0.8
Tyler Austin↔ MIL 27 arb 20.0 0.0 +0.0
Andrew Vasquez 25 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Fernando Romero 24 pre-arb 15-0.0 0.1 -0.2
LaMonte Wade Jr. 25 – 26-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Ian Miller 27 – 12-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Chase De Jong 25 – 1-0.1 – –
Austin Adams↔ DET 32 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Willians Astudillo 27 pre-arb 58-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Kohl Stewart 24 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Adalberto Mejía↔ ANA 26 arb 13-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Blake Parker↔ PHI 34 FA-elig 37-0.2 1.1 -1.8
Sam Dyson↔ SFG 31 FA-elig 12-0.2 1.0 -1.8

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Nelson Cruz4.5
Michael Pineda2.6
Jonathan Schoop2.1
Martín Pérez1.8
Luis Arraez1.8
Marwin Gonzalez1.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Eduardo Escobar3.0
Robbie Grossman1.3
Brian Dozier1.1
Joe Mauer0.8
Zach Duke0.8
Ryan Pressly0.8

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$107.9M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Nelson Cruz3811.082$14.0MFREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez306.133$12.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Castro328.104$8.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Pineda307.099$8.0MFREE AGENT
Martín Pérez286.038$3.5MFREE AGENT
Sergio Romo3610.097$1.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Jake Odorizzi295.042$9.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Gibson315.039$8.1MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Schoop275.027$7.5MFREE AGENT
C.J. Cron294.097$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Rosario273.120$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Sanó263.066$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ehire Adrianza294.131$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Parker344.036$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Dyson314.142$984kARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor May294.012$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Morin283.047$99kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams325.000$20kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Max Kepler262.152$6.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco252.024$3.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Byron Buxton252.160$1.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Rogers282.145$1.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Torreyes262.139$800kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Berríos252.044$620kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Garver281.045$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cave260.113$572kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Hildenberger281.101$572kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willians Astudillo270.061$560kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryne Harper300.005$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Duffey282.097$448kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Arraez220.000$361kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Magill291.031$314kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
LaMonte Wade Jr.250.000$263kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adalberto Mejía261.052$208kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lewis Thorpe230.000$203kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Smeltzer230.000$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Stashak250.000$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Littell230.031$167kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Romero240.054$143kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Dobnak242.059$125kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kohl Stewart240.050$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Miller270.000$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brusdar Graterol200.000$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan LaMarre301.040$66kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Alcala230.000$48kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Eades27–$32k
Sean Poppen250.000$24kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Vasquez250.030$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Austin271.159$13kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase De Jong252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.