RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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GM: Terry Ryan

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.79× league · TAB -0.8
-0.8TAB — talent above budget16th/30
-8.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-5.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
29%dead money %11th/30
0.432win %26th/30
30.5roster fWAR20th/30
-0surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$89Mpayroll $M20th/30

Roster

CFDanny Santana 69GAaron Hicks 57GJordan Schafer 20G
LFJosh Willingham 53GJordan Schafer 49GJason Kubel 36G
RFOswaldo Arcia 100GChris Parmelee 33GChris Colabello 19G
SSEduardo Escobar 98GDanny Santana 34GPedro Florimón 31G
2BBrian Dozier 156GEduardo Escobar 9GEduardo Núñez 2G
3BTrevor Plouffe 127GEduardo Escobar 25GEduardo Núñez 20G
1BJoe Mauer 100GChris Parmelee 33GChris Colabello 23G
STARTERSPhil Hughes 6.2WARKyle Gibson 2.7WARRicky Nolasco 1.3WARYohan Pino 0.9WARTrevor May 0.3WAR
CKurt Suzuki 119GJosmil Pinto 25GEric Fryer 24G
DHKennys Vargas 40GJosmil Pinto 21GJoe Mauer 19G
BULLPEN★ Glen Perkins 34svCasey Fien 26hJared Burton 14hBrian Duensing 7hCaleb Thielbar 7hMichael Tonkin 4hAnthony Swarzak 3hMatt Guerrier 3h
CKurt Suzuki 119 · Josmil Pinto 25 · Eric Fryer 24
1BJoe Mauer 100 · Chris Parmelee 33 · Chris Colabello 23
2BBrian Dozier 156 · Eduardo Escobar 9 · Eduardo Núñez 2
3BTrevor Plouffe 127 · Eduardo Escobar 25 · Eduardo Núñez 20
SSEduardo Escobar 98 · Danny Santana 34 · Pedro Florimón 31
LFJosh Willingham 53 · Jordan Schafer 49 · Jason Kubel 36
CFDanny Santana 69 · Aaron Hicks 57 · Jordan Schafer 20
RFOswaldo Arcia 100 · Chris Parmelee 33 · Chris Colabello 19
DHKennys Vargas 40 · Josmil Pinto 21 · Joe Mauer 19
SPPhil Hughes 6.2 · Kyle Gibson 2.7 · Ricky Nolasco 1.3 · Yohan Pino 0.9 · Trevor May 0.3
BP★ Glen Perkins 34 · Casey Fien 26 · Jared Burton 14 · Brian Duensing 7 · Caleb Thielbar 7 · Michael Tonkin 4 · Anthony Swarzak 3 · Matt Guerrier 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Phil Hughes 28 FA-elig 326.2 8.0 +10.2
Brian Dozier 27 pre-arb 1564.5 0.5 +12.6
Danny Santana 23 – 1013.9 0.4 +11.0
Trevor Plouffe 28 arb 1363.4 2.4 +7.5
Kyle Gibson 26 pre-arb 312.7 0.5 +7.4
Eduardo Escobar 25 arb 1332.6 0.5 +7.2
Joe Mauer 31 FA-elig 1201.7 23.0 -18.1
Josh Willingham↔ KCR 35 FA-elig 681.3 5.2 -1.5
Ricky Nolasco 31 FA-elig 271.3 12.0 -8.3
Glen Perkins 31 FA-elig 631.2 4.0 -0.5
Kevin Correia↔ LAD 33 FA-elig 231.1 4.0 -0.9
Casey Fien 30 arb 730.9 0.5 +2.2
Oswaldo Arcia 23 pre-arb 1030.9 0.5 +2.2
Yohan Pino 30 – 110.9 0.1 +2.4
Sam Fuld↔ OAK 32 FA-elig 530.7 0.4 +1.7
Anthony Swarzak 28 arb 500.6 0.9 +0.8
Jordan Schafer↔ ATL 27 arb 410.5 0.4 +0.9
Kennys Vargas 23 pre-arb 530.5 0.2 +1.2
Caleb Thielbar 27 pre-arb 540.4 0.5 +0.5
Trevor May 24 – 100.3 0.1 +0.7
Jorge Polanco 20 – 50.2 0.0 +0.6
Aaron Hicks 24 pre-arb 690.1 0.5 -0.1
Jared Burton 33 FA-elig 680.1 3.2 -2.8
Aaron Thompson 27 – 70.1 – –
Eduardo Núñez 27 pre-arb 720.1 0.5 -0.1
Chris Parmelee 26 pre-arb 870.1 0.4 -0.1
Doug Bernier 34 – 70.1 – –
Matt Guerrier 35 – 270.0 0.4 -0.3
Jason Bartlett 34 FA-elig 3-0.0 1.0 -1.0
Michael Tonkin 24 pre-arb 25-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Samuel Deduno↔ HOU 30 arb 30-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Darin Mastroianni↔ TOR 28 – 7-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Kris Johnson 29 – 3-0.1 – –
Ryan Pressly 25 pre-arb 25-0.1 0.2 -0.5
A.J. Achter 25 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Logan Darnell 25 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Lester Oliveros 26 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.1 -0.5
Pedro Florimón 27 arb 33-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Brian Duensing 31 arb 62-0.2 2.0 -2.5
Tommy Milone↔ OAK 27 arb 6-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Kurt Suzuki 30 FA-elig 131-0.2 2.8 -3.3
Eric Fryer 28 pre-arb 28-0.4 0.3 -1.4
Josmil Pinto 25 pre-arb 57-0.5 0.5 -2.0
Chris Colabello 30 pre-arb 59-0.6 0.5 -2.2
Mike Pelfrey 30 FA-elig 5-0.6 5.5 -7.2
Jason Kubel 32 FA-elig 45-0.8 2.0 -4.2
Chris Herrmann 26 pre-arb 33-0.8 0.5 -2.7
Kendrys Morales↔ SEA 31 FA-elig 39-0.9 2.9 -5.7

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Phil Hughes6.2
Danny Santana3.9
Ricky Nolasco1.3
Yohan Pino0.9
Sam Fuld0.7
Jordan Schafer0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Justin Morneau0.9
Andrew Albers0.9
Alex Presley0.2
P.J. Walters0.1
Wilkin Ramirez0.0
Josh Roenicke-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$89.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Joe Mauer3110.000$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0MFREE AGENT
Ricky Nolasco317.142$12.0M$12.0M$7.9MFREE AGENT
Phil Hughes286.113$8.0M$9.2M$9.2M$13.2M$9.2MFREE AGENT
Mike Pelfrey306.122$5.5M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Willingham358.123$5.2MFREE AGENT
Glen Perkins3110.010$4.0M$4.7M$6.3M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Kevin Correia339.027$4.0MFREE AGENT
Jared Burton336.014$3.2MFREE AGENT
Kendrys Morales316.057$2.9MFREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki306.112$2.8M$6.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Kubel3210.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Bartlett3410.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Guerrier359.056$426kFREE AGENT
Danny Santana237.104$407k$530k$538k$459kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Brian Duensing314.104$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Swarzak283.038$935kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Schafer273.121$430kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Fuld323.140$375kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Trevor Plouffe282.162$2.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Dozier271.100$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Fien301.143$530kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Florimón271.073$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oswaldo Arcia232.020$512kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar271.131$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Hicks240.124$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Escobar251.128$507kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Colabello302.089$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Gibson260.056$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josmil Pinto250.131$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Herrmann260.116$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Núñez272.117$457kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Samuel Deduno301.096$446kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Parmelee262.058$396kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Fryer282.108$307kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly251.000$187kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Tonkin240.028$187kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kennys Vargas232.000$164kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor May240.000$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Milone272.018$133kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yohan Pino300.000$128kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Darnell250.073$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lester Oliveros260.091$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Achter250.000$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darin Mastroianni280.149$24kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco200.000$16kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Bernier341.112—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kris Johnson29–—
Aaron Thompson270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.