MIN⇄OAK

MINMIN Terry Ryan net −$3.2M net +0.3

received +$36.0M+$36.0M ± $35M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 5.3 ± 4 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2014 odds 10% → 7% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy MiloneP·27y·L/L

+$36.2M+$36.2M± $35M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 5.3± 4 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

#301 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.31/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$3.2M net -0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2014 odds 30% → 37% (+6.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sam FuldOF·32y·L/L

+$1.1M+$1.1M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.48 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.