RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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GM: Terry Ryan

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.93× league · TAB -5.2
-5.2TAB — talent above budget18th/30
+2.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-6.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
36%dead money %13th/30
0.512win %13th/30
28.1roster fWAR20th/30
-24surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$113Mpayroll $M17th/30

Roster

CFAaron Hicks 88GByron Buxton 44GJordan Schafer 26G
LFEddie Rosario 86GShane Robinson 55GEduardo Escobar 35G
RFTorii Hunter 123GEddie Rosario 34GAaron Hicks 16G
SSEduardo Escobar 71GDanny Santana 66GEduardo Núñez 27G
2BBrian Dozier 157GEduardo Escobar 11GDoug Bernier 2G
3BTrevor Plouffe 140GEduardo Núñez 16GMiguel Sanó 9G
1BJoe Mauer 137GKennys Vargas 18GTrevor Plouffe 17G
STARTERSKyle Gibson 2.8WARTrevor May 2.4WARMike Pelfrey 2.4WARTommy Milone 1.7WARErvin Santana 1.5WAR
CKurt Suzuki 130GChris Herrmann 38GEric Fryer 15G
DHMiguel Sanó 69GKennys Vargas 29GJoe Mauer 20G
BULLPEN★ Glen Perkins 32svKevin Jepsen 24hBlaine Boyer 19hCasey Fien 18hAaron Thompson 9hNeal Cotts 6hBrian Duensing 6hJ.R. Graham 0h
CKurt Suzuki 130 · Chris Herrmann 38 · Eric Fryer 15
1BJoe Mauer 137 · Kennys Vargas 18 · Trevor Plouffe 17
2BBrian Dozier 157 · Eduardo Escobar 11 · Doug Bernier 2
3BTrevor Plouffe 140 · Eduardo Núñez 16 · Miguel Sanó 9
SSEduardo Escobar 71 · Danny Santana 66 · Eduardo Núñez 27
LFEddie Rosario 86 · Shane Robinson 55 · Eduardo Escobar 35
CFAaron Hicks 88 · Byron Buxton 44 · Jordan Schafer 26
RFTorii Hunter 123 · Eddie Rosario 34 · Aaron Hicks 16
DHMiguel Sanó 69 · Kennys Vargas 29 · Joe Mauer 20
SPKyle Gibson 2.8 · Trevor May 2.4 · Mike Pelfrey 2.4 · Tommy Milone 1.7 · Ervin Santana 1.5
BP★ Glen Perkins 32 · Kevin Jepsen 24 · Blaine Boyer 19 · Casey Fien 18 · Aaron Thompson 9 · Neal Cotts 6 · Brian Duensing 6 · J.R. Graham 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brian Dozier 28 arb 1573.1 2.0 +7.7
Kyle Gibson 27 pre-arb 322.8 0.5 +8.4
Trevor Plouffe 29 arb 1522.6 4.8 +3.5
Eddie Rosario 23 – 1222.4 0.4 +7.3
Trevor May 25 pre-arb 482.4 0.5 +7.2
Mike Pelfrey 31 FA-elig 302.4 5.5 +2.0
Miguel Sanó 22 – 802.0 0.3 +6.1
Aaron Hicks 25 pre-arb 972.0 0.4 +5.9
Eduardo Escobar 26 arb 1271.9 0.5 +5.6
Tommy Milone 28 arb 241.7 2.8 +2.5
Ervin Santana 32 FA-elig 171.5 13.5 -8.7
Tyler Duffey 24 – 101.3 0.2 +4.1
Eduardo Núñez 28 arb 721.1 1.0 +2.6
Phil Hughes 29 FA-elig 271.1 9.2 -5.6
Casey Fien 31 FA-elig 620.9 1.4 +1.3
Kevin Jepsen↔ TBR 30 FA-elig 290.8 1.2 +1.3
Ricky Nolasco 32 FA-elig 90.7 12.0 -9.7
Torii Hunter 39 FA-elig 1390.7 10.5 -8.3
Glen Perkins 32 FA-elig 600.6 4.7 -2.6
Ryan Pressly 26 pre-arb 270.5 0.4 +1.2
Blaine Boyer 33 FA-elig 680.3 0.8 +0.3
Joe Mauer 32 FA-elig 1580.3 23.0 -22.0
Aaron Thompson 28 arb 410.2 0.5 +0.2
Caleb Thielbar 28 – 60.2 0.0 +0.5
Shane Robinson 30 FA-elig 830.2 0.6 -0.1
Eric Fryer 29 pre-arb 150.1 0.1 +0.3
Jorge Polanco 21 pre-arb 40.1 0.0 +0.3
Byron Buxton 21 – 460.1 0.1 +0.1
Doug Bernier 35 pre-arb 40.0 0.0 +0.1
Ryan O'Rourke 27 – 280.0 0.2 -0.2
Max Kepler 22 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Michael Tonkin 25 pre-arb 26-0.1 0.2 -0.6
J.R. Graham 25 pre-arb 39-0.2 0.5 -1.0
A.J. Achter 26 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Alex Meyer 25 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Neal Cotts↔ MIL 35 FA-elig 17-0.2 0.8 -1.5
Brian Duensing 32 FA-elig 55-0.4 2.7 -3.9
Oswaldo Arcia 24 pre-arb 19-0.4 0.5 -1.7
Tim Stauffer↔ NYM 33 FA-elig 13-0.4 1.6 -2.8
Jordan Schafer 28 FA-elig 27-0.5 1.6 -3.3
Chris Herrmann 27 arb 45-0.6 0.5 -2.3
Kennys Vargas 24 pre-arb 58-0.7 0.5 -2.6
Kurt Suzuki 31 FA-elig 131-1.0 6.0 -9.3
Danny Santana 24 pre-arb 91-1.3 0.5 -4.7

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Eddie Rosario2.4
Miguel Sanó2.0
Ervin Santana1.5
Tyler Duffey1.3
Kevin Jepsen0.8
Torii Hunter0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Josh Willingham1.3
Kevin Correia1.1
Yohan Pino0.9
Sam Fuld0.7
Anthony Swarzak0.6
Jared Burton0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$112.7M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Joe Mauer3211.000$23.0MFREE AGENT
Ervin Santana329.104$13.5MFREE AGENT
Ricky Nolasco328.142$12.0MFREE AGENT
Torii Hunter3915.132$10.5MFREE AGENT
Phil Hughes297.113$9.2MFREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki317.112$6.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Pelfrey317.122$5.5MFREE AGENT
Glen Perkins3210.010$4.7MFREE AGENT
Tim Stauffer336.143$1.6MFREE AGENT
Neal Cotts356.041$750kFREE AGENT
Blaine Boyer338.070$750kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Trevor Plouffe293.162$4.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Duensing325.104$2.7MFREE AGENT
Jordan Schafer284.121$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Jepsen304.163$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Núñez283.090$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Tommy Milone282.165$2.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Dozier282.100$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Fien312.143$1.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Robinson302.141$550kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Gibson271.056$538kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oswaldo Arcia242.020$532kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Escobar262.128$532kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Santana240.149$530kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Thompson280.146$520kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kennys Vargas242.000$518kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Herrmann271.020$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.R. Graham251.000$507kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor May250.051$493kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly261.068$437kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Rosario230.000$424kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Hicks251.066$408kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Sanó220.000$263kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan O'Rourke270.000$250kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Tonkin250.096$220kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Duffey240.000$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Achter260.027$130kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Byron Buxton210.000$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Fryer292.108$94kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Bernier350.112$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar281.131$43kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Kepler220.000$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Meyer251.013$22kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco210.007$11kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.