MIL⇄LAD

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$1.6M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2009 odds 6% → 6% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Claudio VargasP·31y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Ned Colletti net +$1.6M net -0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2009 odds 78% → 77% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Vinny RottinoOF·29y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.