RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: David Gottfried

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.72× league · TAB -11.6
-11.6TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-21.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)30th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-7.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag25th/30
27%dead money %10th/30
0.346win %30th/30
18.5roster fWAR27th/30
-20surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$68Mpayroll $M21st/30

Roster

CFJordan Schafer 79GJason Bourgeois 34GJB Shuck 9G
LFCarlos Lee 80GJ.D. Martinez 51GJason Bourgeois 34G
RFBrian Bogusevic 40GJason Michaels 16GJB Shuck 16G
SSClint Barmes 122GAngel Sanchez 46GMatt Downs 2G
2BJose Altuve 55GMatt Downs 27GAngel Sanchez 19G
3BChris Johnson 101GJimmy Paredes 46GMatt Downs 19G
1BBrett Wallace 96GCarlos Lee 79GMatt Downs 13G
STARTERSBud Norris 1.8WARBrett Myers 1.7WARWandy Rodriguez 1.5WARJ.A. Happ 0.9WARJordan Lyles 0.4WAR
CHumberto Quintero 77GJ.R. Towles 51GCarlos Corporán 50G
DHCarlos Lee 6G
BULLPEN★ Mark Melancon 20svWilton Lopez 14hFernando Abad 7hSergio Escalona 6hFernando Rodriguez Jr. 6hDavid Carpenter 3hWesley Wright 3hEnerio Del Rosario 2h
CHumberto Quintero 77 · J.R. Towles 51 · Carlos Corporán 50
1BBrett Wallace 96 · Carlos Lee 79 · Matt Downs 13
2BJose Altuve 55 · Matt Downs 27 · Angel Sanchez 19
3BChris Johnson 101 · Jimmy Paredes 46 · Matt Downs 19
SSClint Barmes 122 · Angel Sanchez 46 · Matt Downs 2
LFCarlos Lee 80 · J.D. Martinez 51 · Jason Bourgeois 34
CFJordan Schafer 79 · Jason Bourgeois 34 · JB Shuck 9
RFBrian Bogusevic 40 · Jason Michaels 16 · JB Shuck 16
DHCarlos Lee 6
SPBud Norris 1.8 · Brett Myers 1.7 · Wandy Rodriguez 1.5 · J.A. Happ 0.9 · Jordan Lyles 0.4
BP★ Mark Melancon 20 · Wilton Lopez 14 · Fernando Abad 7 · Sergio Escalona 6 · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 6 · David Carpenter 3 · Wesley Wright 3 · Enerio Del Rosario 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carlos Lee 35 FA-elig 1552.9 19.0 -12.0
Clint Barmes 32 FA-elig 1232.7 3.9 +2.8
Michael Bourn↔ ATL 28 arb 1052.7 2.9 +3.6
Brian Bogusevic 27 pre-arb 872.1 0.4 +4.6
Hunter Pence↔ PHI 28 arb 1001.9 4.5 +0.3
Bud Norris 26 pre-arb 311.8 0.4 +3.9
Brett Myers 30 FA-elig 341.7 8.0 -3.7
Wandy Rodriguez 32 FA-elig 301.5 7.5 -3.8
Matt Downs 27 pre-arb 1061.2 0.4 +2.5
J.D. Martinez 23 – 531.1 0.4 +2.3
Jason Bourgeois 29 arb 931.0 0.4 +2.1
J.A. Happ 28 arb 290.9 0.5 +1.8
Mark Melancon 26 pre-arb 710.8 0.4 +1.5
Jeff Keppinger↔ SFG 31 FA-elig 430.5 1.0 +0.3
Wilton Lopez 27 pre-arb 730.5 0.4 +0.8
Angel Sanchez 27 arb 1100.4 0.4 +0.5
Jordan Lyles 20 – 200.4 0.4 +0.5
Jimmy Paredes 22 pre-arb 460.4 0.4 +0.5
Carlos Corporán 27 pre-arb 520.3 0.4 +0.3
Jose Altuve 21 – 570.2 0.2 +0.3
Lucas Harrell↔ CHW 26 – 60.2 0.3 +0.2
Nelson Figueroa 37 FA-elig 80.2 0.9 -0.5
JB Shuck 24 – 370.2 0.4 -0.0
Henry Sosa 25 – 100.2 0.4 -0.0
Wesley Wright 26 pre-arb 210.1 0.4 -0.2
Jordan Schafer↔ ATL 24 – 300.0 0.2 -0.1
Aneury Rodriguez 23 pre-arb 43-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Sergio Escalona 26 pre-arb 49-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Juan Abreu 26 – 7-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Jose G. Valdez 28 – 12-0.1 – –
David Carpenter 25 – 34-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Luis Durango 25 – 2-0.1 – –
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 27 – 47-0.1 – –
Robinson Cancel 35 – 2-0.2 – –
J.R. Towles 27 arb 54-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Jeff Fulchino↔ SDP 31 arb 36-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Lance Pendleton↔ NYY 27 – 4-0.3 – –
Xavier Cedeño 24 – 3-0.3 – –
Joe Inglett 33 – 20-0.3 – –
Enerio Del Rosario 25 pre-arb 54-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Fernando Abad 25 pre-arb 29-0.4 0.4 -1.5
Brandon Lyon 31 FA-elig 15-0.5 5.2 -6.6
Jason Michaels 35 FA-elig 89-0.6 0.9 -2.3
Brett Wallace 24 pre-arb 115-0.9 0.4 -2.6
Chris Johnson 26 pre-arb 107-0.9 0.4 -2.6
Bill Hall↔ SFG 31 FA-elig 46-0.9 2.2 -4.5
Humberto Quintero 31 FA-elig 79-0.9 1.0 -3.3

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Clint Barmes2.7
J.D. Martinez1.1
Jordan Lyles0.4
Jimmy Paredes0.4
Carlos Corporán0.3
Jose Altuve0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Felipe Paulino2.0
Matt Lindstrom0.2
Gustavo Chacin0.2
Brian Moehler0.0
Geoff Blum0.0
Anderson Hernandez-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$68.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Carlos Lee3511.150$19.0M$10.3MFREE AGENT
Brett Myers308.068$8.0M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lyon318.142$5.2M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Bill Hall317.099$2.2MFREE AGENT
Jason Michaels3510.000$900kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Wandy Rodriguez325.105$7.5MFREE AGENT
Hunter Pence283.156$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clint Barmes325.112$3.9MFREE AGENT
Michael Bourn284.028$2.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Humberto Quintero314.141$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Keppinger314.052$999kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nelson Figueroa374.031$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Sanchez275.000$432kFREE AGENT
Jeff Fulchino315.000$431kFREE AGENT
Joe Inglett335.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
J.A. Happ282.047$474kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilton Lopez271.038$442kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bud Norris261.068$438kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.R. Towles271.049$424kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Johnson260.166$424kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bourgeois291.009$423kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Downs272.094$421kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Melancon260.139$421kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Abad250.054$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Wallace240.065$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enerio Del Rosario251.000$417kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Escalona261.017$417kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wesley Wright262.057$416kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bogusevic270.033$416kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Paredes222.059$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Corporán270.015$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aneury Rodriguez231.000$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Abreu26–$414k
JB Shuck240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Sosa250.111$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.D. Martinez230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Carpenter250.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles200.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Harrell262.083$276kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Altuve210.000$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Schafer240.165$151kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robinson Cancel35–—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr.272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose G. Valdez28–—
Xavier Cedeño240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Pendleton27–—
Luis Durango25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.