RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Ed Wade

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.89× league · TAB -11.7
-11.7TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-4.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-9.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
50%dead money %27th/30
0.469win %22nd/30
21.1roster fWAR25th/30
-30surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$82Mpayroll $M16th/30

Roster

CFMichael Bourn 138GJason Bourgeois 24GJason Michaels 11G
LFCarlos Lee 133GJason Michaels 41GJason Bourgeois 25G
RFHunter Pence 155GJason Michaels 5GCory Sullivan 3G
SSTommy Manzella 82GAngel Sanchez 58GAnderson Hernandez 18G
2BJeff Keppinger 126GKazuo Matsui 21GMatt Downs 21G
3BChris Johnson 90GGeoff Blum 14GMatt Downs 2G
1BBrett Wallace 48GCarlos Lee 20GPedro Feliz 15G
STARTERSBrett Myers 4.0WARWandy Rodriguez 3.7WARFelipe Paulino 2.0WARBud Norris 1.7WARNelson Figueroa 0.5WAR
CHumberto Quintero 87GJason Castro 67GJ.R. Towles 15G
DHCarlos Lee 7GJason Michaels 2G
BULLPEN★ Matt Lindstrom 23svBrandon Lyon 19hWilton Lopez 14hTim Byrdak 11hFernando Abad 6hJeff Fulchino 5hGustavo Chacín 5hChris Sampson 5h
CHumberto Quintero 87 · Jason Castro 67 · J.R. Towles 15
1BBrett Wallace 48 · Carlos Lee 20 · Pedro Feliz 15
2BJeff Keppinger 126 · Kazuo Matsui 21 · Matt Downs 21
3BChris Johnson 90 · Geoff Blum 14 · Matt Downs 2
SSTommy Manzella 82 · Angel Sanchez 58 · Anderson Hernandez 18
LFCarlos Lee 133 · Jason Michaels 41 · Jason Bourgeois 25
CFMichael Bourn 138 · Jason Bourgeois 24 · Jason Michaels 11
RFHunter Pence 155 · Jason Michaels 5 · Cory Sullivan 3
DHCarlos Lee 7 · Jason Michaels 2
SPBrett Myers 4.0 · Wandy Rodriguez 3.7 · Felipe Paulino 2.0 · Bud Norris 1.7 · Nelson Figueroa 0.5
BP★ Matt Lindstrom 23 · Brandon Lyon 19 · Wilton Lopez 14 · Tim Byrdak 11 · Fernando Abad 6 · Jeff Fulchino 5 · Gustavo Chacín 5 · Chris Sampson 5

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Michael Bourn 27 arb 1414.4 2.4 +8.0
Brett Myers 29 FA-elig 334.0 3.1 +6.2
Wandy Rodriguez 31 arb 343.7 5.0 +3.7
Hunter Pence 27 arb 1562.7 3.5 +2.8
Roy Oswalt↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 202.4 8.6 -2.9
Felipe Paulino 26 arb 192.0 0.4 +4.3
Lance Berkman↔ NYY 34 FA-elig 851.7 10.1 -6.1
Bud Norris 25 pre-arb 271.7 0.4 +3.6
Jeff Keppinger 30 FA-elig 1371.4 1.1 +2.0
Wilton Lopez 26 – 681.2 – –
Brandon Lyon 30 FA-elig 791.1 4.2 -1.6
Chris Johnson 25 pre-arb 941.0 0.4 +2.0
Jason Michaels 34 FA-elig 1060.8 0.8 +1.0
J.A. Happ↔ PHI 27 arb 130.5 0.4 +0.8
Nelson Figueroa↔ PHI 36 FA-elig 180.5 0.2 +0.9
Humberto Quintero 30 FA-elig 880.4 0.8 +0.2
Mark Melancon↔ NYY 25 – 200.3 0.4 +0.3
Matt Lindstrom 30 arb 580.2 1.6 -1.1
Gustavo Chacin 29 – 440.2 – –
Jason Bourgeois 28 – 690.1 – –
J.R. Towles 26 arb 170.0 0.4 -0.3
Brian Moehler 38 FA-elig 200.0 3.0 -2.9
Geoff Blum 37 FA-elig 930.0 1.5 -1.4
Enerio Del Rosario↔ CIN 24 – 20.0 – –
Anderson Hernandez↔ CLE 27 – 32-0.0 – –
Henry Villar 23 – 8-0.0 – –
Jason Castro 23 – 67-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Brian Esposito 31 – 2-0.1 – –
Gary Majewski 30 – 2-0.1 – –
Fernando Abad 24 – 22-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Matt Downs↔ SFG 26 – 11-0.1 – –
Kevin Cash↔ BOS 32 – 20-0.1 – –
Josh Banks 27 – 1-0.1 – –
Sammy Gervacio 25 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Tim Byrdak 36 FA-elig 64-0.2 1.6 -2.0
Brett Wallace 23 – 51-0.2 – –
Brian Bogusevic 26 – 19-0.2 – –
Wesley Wright 25 pre-arb 14-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Oswaldo Navarro 25 – 14-0.2 – –
Jeff Fulchino 30 arb 50-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Casey Daigle 29 – 13-0.4 – –
Cory Sullivan 30 arb 57-0.5 0.7 -1.8
Chris Sampson 32 arb 35-0.6 0.8 -2.2
Angel Sanchez↔ BOS 26 – 65-0.6 – –
Kazuo Matsui 34 FA-elig 27-0.7 5.5 -7.3
Tommy Manzella 27 pre-arb 83-0.8 0.4 -2.3
Carlos Lee 34 FA-elig 157-1.7 19.0 -23.0
Pedro Feliz↔ STL 35 FA-elig 97-1.7 3.2 -7.3

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Brett Myers4.0
Brandon Lyon1.1
J.A. Happ0.5
Nelson Figueroa0.5
Mark Melancon0.3
Matt Lindstrom0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Miguel Tejada1.8
Mike Hampton1.4
Jose Valverde0.8
Russ Ortiz0.7
Alberto Arias0.6
LaTroy Hawkins0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$81.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Carlos Lee3411.000$19.0M$19.0M$10.3MFREE AGENT
Lance Berkman3411.000$10.1MFREE AGENT
Roy Oswalt329.000$8.6MFREE AGENT
Kazuo Matsui346.000$5.5MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lyon309.000$4.2M$5.2M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Pedro Feliz3510.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Brett Myers298.000$3.1M$8.0M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Brian Moehler3814.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Byrdak3612.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Geoff Blum3711.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jeff Keppinger306.000$1.1M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jason Michaels349.000$800k$900kFREE AGENT
Humberto Quintero307.000$750k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Nelson Figueroa3610.000$242k$900kFREE AGENT
Gary Majewski306.000—FREE AGENT
Gustavo Chacin296.000—FREE AGENT
Kevin Cash328.000—FREE AGENT
Casey Daigle296.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Wandy Rodriguez315.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Hunter Pence273.000$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bourn274.000$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Lindstrom303.000$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Sampson324.000$815kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Sullivan305.000$700kFREE AGENT
Jeff Fulchino304.000$425kARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Paulino263.000$415kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.R. Towles263.000$406kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.A. Happ273.000$382kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anderson Hernandez275.000—FREE AGENT
Angel Sanchez264.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Wesley Wright252.000$444kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sammy Gervacio251.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bud Norris251.000$401kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Abad240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Manzella271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Johnson251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Melancon251.000$364kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Castro230.000$227kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bourgeois280.009—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilton Lopez261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Esposito31–—
Matt Downs261.094—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Banks27–—
Brian Bogusevic260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oswaldo Navarro25–—
Brett Wallace230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enerio Del Rosario240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Villar23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.