PHI⇄HOU

PHIPHI Ruben Amaro net −$4.0M net +2.2

received +$28.0M+$28.0M ± $21M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 4.6 ± 3 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2010 odds 33% → 39% (+5.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Roy OswaltP·32y·R/R

+$27.6M+$27.6M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 4.6± 3 exp WARrealized 4.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.4/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

3.12/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Ed Wade net +$4.0M net -2.2

received +$27.2M+$27.2M ± $55M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 5.9 ± 7 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2010 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

J. A. HappP·27y·L/L

+$23.7M+$23.7M± $46M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 3.5± 6 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

#92 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.73/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Anthony GoseOF·19y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#51 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jonathan Villar2B/SS·19y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.