HOU⇄STL

HOUHOU Ed Wade net +$8.8M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2010 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David CarpenterP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#376 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$8.8M net -0.4

received −$0.8M−$1.6M ± $12M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2010 odds 25% → 22% (-2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pedro Feliz3B·35y·R/R

−$1.0M−$1.8M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.15/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.