RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Ed Wade

Overview

FORCED-SPEND → steady
expensive & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.16× league · TAB -12.0
-12.0TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-9.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-5.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
19%dead money %3rd/30
0.457win %23rd/30
24.1roster fWAR25th/30
-48surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$106Mpayroll $M10th/30

Roster

CFMichael Bourn 154GJason Michaels 14GDarin Erstad 1G
LFCarlos Lee 154GJason Michaels 31GDarin Erstad 24G
RFHunter Pence 157GDarin Erstad 4GJason Michaels 3G
SSMiguel Tejada 158GJeff Keppinger 11GEdwin Maysonet 3G
2BKazuo Matsui 130GJeff Keppinger 22GEdwin Maysonet 15G
3BGeoff Blum 102GJeff Keppinger 67GEdwin Maysonet 7G
1BLance Berkman 131GChris Coste 16GDarin Erstad 15G
STARTERSWandy Rodriguez 4.0WARRoy Oswalt 3.4WARMike Hampton 1.4WARBrian Moehler 0.7WARRuss Ortiz 0.7WAR
CHumberto Quintero 59GChris Coste 55GJ.R. Towles 15G
DHCarlos Lee 6G
BULLPEN★ Jose Valverde 25svLaTroy Hawkins 19hChris Sampson 15hJeff Fulchino 12hTim Byrdak 10hAlberto Arias 9hWesley Wright 6hSammy Gervacio 6h
CHumberto Quintero 59 · Chris Coste 55 · J.R. Towles 15
1BLance Berkman 131 · Chris Coste 16 · Darin Erstad 15
2BKazuo Matsui 130 · Jeff Keppinger 22 · Edwin Maysonet 15
3BGeoff Blum 102 · Jeff Keppinger 67 · Edwin Maysonet 7
SSMiguel Tejada 158 · Jeff Keppinger 11 · Edwin Maysonet 3
LFCarlos Lee 154 · Jason Michaels 31 · Darin Erstad 24
CFMichael Bourn 154 · Jason Michaels 14 · Darin Erstad 1
RFHunter Pence 157 · Darin Erstad 4 · Jason Michaels 3
DHCarlos Lee 6
SPWandy Rodriguez 4.0 · Roy Oswalt 3.4 · Mike Hampton 1.4 · Brian Moehler 0.7 · Russ Ortiz 0.7
BP★ Jose Valverde 25 · LaTroy Hawkins 19 · Chris Sampson 15 · Jeff Fulchino 12 · Tim Byrdak 10 · Alberto Arias 9 · Wesley Wright 6 · Sammy Gervacio 6

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Michael Bourn 26 arb 1574.7 0.4 +10.8
Wandy Rodriguez 30 arb 344.0 2.6 +6.9
Roy Oswalt 31 FA-elig 303.4 14.0 -5.9
Hunter Pence 26 pre-arb 1593.2 0.4 +7.3
Lance Berkman 33 FA-elig 1362.6 14.5 -8.2
Miguel Tejada 35 FA-elig 1581.8 14.8 -10.5
Mike Hampton 36 FA-elig 211.4 2.0 +1.4
Jeff Fulchino 29 arb 610.9 0.4 +1.8
Jose Valverde 31 FA-elig 520.8 8.0 -6.2
Carlos Lee 33 FA-elig 1600.7 19.0 -17.2
Kazuo Matsui 33 arb 1320.7 5.5 -3.8
Russ Ortiz 35 FA-elig 250.7 0.8 +1.0
Brian Moehler 37 FA-elig 290.7 2.3 -0.7
Alberto Arias 25 pre-arb 420.6 0.4 +1.1
Chris Sampson 31 arb 490.6 0.4 +1.0
Bud Norris 24 – 110.5 0.1 +1.1
Humberto Quintero 29 FA-elig 600.5 0.6 +0.5
LaTroy Hawkins 36 FA-elig 650.4 3.5 -2.5
Sammy Gervacio 24 – 290.4 – –
Edwin Maysonet 27 pre-arb 390.3 0.4 +0.2
Geoff Blum 36 FA-elig 1200.2 1.2 -0.7
Ivan Rodriguez↔ TEX 37 FA-elig 930.2 1.2 -0.6
Jeff Keppinger 29 arb 1070.2 0.4 +0.0
Jason Michaels 33 FA-elig 1020.1 0.8 -0.6
Billy Sadler 27 – 10.0 – –
Tommy Manzella 26 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Matt Kata 31 – 40-0.1 – –
J.R. Towles 25 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Yorman Bazardo 24 – 10-0.2 – –
Felipe Paulino 25 pre-arb 23-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Chad Paronto 33 – 6-0.2 – –
Brandon Backe 31 FA-elig 5-0.3 1.6 -2.2
Wilton Lopez 25 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Aaron Boone 36 FA-elig 10-0.3 0.8 -1.5
Darin Erstad 35 FA-elig 107-0.4 1.8 -2.7
Chris Johnson 24 – 11-0.4 0.1 -1.0
Wesley Wright 24 pre-arb 49-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Geoff Geary 32 FA-elig 16-0.4 1.7 -2.7
Doug Brocail 42 FA-elig 20-0.4 2.5 -3.5
Chris Coste↔ PHI 36 arb 43-0.5 0.2 -1.5
Tim Byrdak 35 FA-elig 76-0.6 1.0 -2.4
Jason Smith 31 FA-elig 21-0.6 0.5 -2.0

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Mike Hampton1.4
Jeff Fulchino0.9
Russ Ortiz0.7
Bud Norris0.5
Sammy Gervacio0.4
Ivan Rodriguez0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Ty Wigginton2.7
Mark Loretta1.3
Randy Wolf1.1
Reggie Abercrombie0.5
Fernando Nieve0.1
Mark Saccomanno0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$105.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Carlos Lee3310.000$19.0M$19.0M$19.0M$10.3MFREE AGENT
Miguel Tejada3512.000$14.8MFREE AGENT
Lance Berkman3310.000$14.5M$10.1MFREE AGENT
Roy Oswalt318.000$14.0M$8.6MFREE AGENT
Jose Valverde316.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins3614.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Doug Brocail4217.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Brian Moehler3713.000$2.3M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Hampton3616.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Darin Erstad3513.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Geoff Geary326.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Brandon Backe317.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Geoff Blum3610.000$1.2M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Ivan Rodriguez3718.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Tim Byrdak3511.000$1.0M$1.6MFREE AGENT
Aaron Boone3612.000$750kFREE AGENT
Russ Ortiz3511.000$750kFREE AGENT
Jason Michaels338.000$750k$800k$900kFREE AGENT
Humberto Quintero296.000$610k$750k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Smith318.000$500kFREE AGENT
Chad Paronto338.000—FREE AGENT
Matt Kata316.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Kazuo Matsui335.000$5.5MFREE AGENT
Wandy Rodriguez304.000$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Sampson313.000$449kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bourn263.000$434kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Keppinger295.000$428kFREE AGENT
Jeff Fulchino293.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Coste363.000$225kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yorman Bazardo244.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Hunter Pence262.000$439kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wesley Wright241.000$425kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Paulino252.000$405kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Arias252.000$402kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.R. Towles252.000$402kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilton Lopez250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Manzella260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Maysonet271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bud Norris240.000$149kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Johnson240.000$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Sadler27–—
Sammy Gervacio240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.