PHI⇄HOU

PHIPHI Bill Giles net +$3.2M net +1.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1987 odds 3% → 4% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff CalhounP·29y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.58 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Bill Wood net −$3.2M net -1.0

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $25M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.1 ± 3 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1987 odds 9% → 7% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ronn ReynoldsC·28y·R/R

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.