RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Dick Wagner

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.92× league · TAB +10.1
+10.1TAB — talent above budget3rd/26
+15.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/26
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/26
-2.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/26
26%dead money %6th/26
0.593win %2nd/26
43.3roster fWAR4th/26
+3surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/26
$10Mpayroll $M17th/26

1986: made playoffs · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 26 teams that season.

Roster

CFBilly Hatcher 95GTony Walker 69GKevin Bass 41G
LFJose Cruz 134GBilly Hatcher 39GTy Gainey 7G
RFKevin Bass 133GTerry Puhl 42GBilly Hatcher 9G
SSDickie Thon 104GCraig Reynolds 98GBert Pena 10G
2BBill Doran 144GJim Pankovits 26GPhil Garner 7G
3BDenny Walling 102GPhil Garner 84GCraig Reynolds 4G
1BGlenn Davis 156GDan Driessen 16GCraig Reynolds 5G
STARTERSMike Scott 8.4WARBob Knepper 3.1WARNolan Ryan Jr. 2.9WARJim Deshaies 1.3WARDanny Darwin 1.2WAR
CAlan Ashby 102GMark Bailey 53GJohn Mizerock 42G
BULLPEN★ Dave Smith 33svCharlie Kerfeld 0hLarry Andersen 0hAurelio Lopez 0hJeff Calhoun 0hJulio Solano 0hManny Hernandez 0hTom Funk 0h
CAlan Ashby 102 · Mark Bailey 53 · John Mizerock 42
1BGlenn Davis 156 · Dan Driessen 16 · Craig Reynolds 5
2BBill Doran 144 · Jim Pankovits 26 · Phil Garner 7
3BDenny Walling 102 · Phil Garner 84 · Craig Reynolds 4
SSDickie Thon 104 · Craig Reynolds 98 · Bert Pena 10
LFJose Cruz 134 · Billy Hatcher 39 · Ty Gainey 7
CFBilly Hatcher 95 · Tony Walker 69 · Kevin Bass 41
RFKevin Bass 133 · Terry Puhl 42 · Billy Hatcher 9
SPMike Scott 8.4 · Bob Knepper 3.1 · Nolan Ryan Jr. 2.9 · Jim Deshaies 1.3 · Danny Darwin 1.2
BP★ Dave Smith 33 · Charlie Kerfeld 0 · Larry Andersen 0 · Aurelio Lopez 0 · Jeff Calhoun 0 · Julio Solano 0 · Manny Hernandez 0 · Tom Funk 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1986 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mike Scott 31 FA-elig 388.4 0.7 +1.8
Kevin Bass 27 arb 1575.2 0.3 +1.2
Glenn Davis 25 pre-arb 1584.2 0.1 +1.1
Denny Walling 32 FA-elig 1303.9 0.4 +0.8
Bill Doran 28 arb 1453.3 0.6 +0.4
Bob Knepper 32 FA-elig 423.1 1.0 -0.1
Nolan Ryan Jr. 39 FA-elig 302.9 1.1 -0.3
Jose Cruz 38 FA-elig 1412.5 0.8 -0.0
Phil Garner 37 FA-elig 1071.5 0.6 -0.1
Jim Deshaies 26 pre-arb 261.3 0.1 +0.3
Dickie Thon 28 FA-elig 1061.2 0.6 -0.2
Billy Hatcher 25 pre-arb 1271.2 0.1 +0.3
Danny Darwin↔ MIL 30 FA-elig 121.2 0.2 +0.2
Alan Ashby 34 FA-elig 1200.9 0.5 -0.3
Charlie Kerfeld 22 pre-arb 610.7 0.1 +0.1
Tony Walker 26 – 840.7 – –
Craig Reynolds 33 FA-elig 1140.6 0.4 -0.2
Davey Lopes↔ CHC 41 FA-elig 370.6 0.2 -0.0
Ty Gainey 25 – 260.6 – –
Jim Pankovits 30 pre-arb 700.5 0.1 +0.1
Larry Andersen↔ PHI 33 FA-elig 380.3 0.2 -0.1
John Mizerock 25 arb 440.3 0.1 +0.0
Dave Smith 31 FA-elig 540.2 0.7 -0.6
Terry Puhl 29 FA-elig 810.2 0.8 -0.8
Mark Bailey 24 – 570.1 – –
Dan Driessen↔ SFG 34 FA-elig 170.1 0.4 -0.3
Mike Madden 28 – 130.1 – –
Louie Meadows 25 – 60.0 – –
Matt Keough↔ CHC 30 FA-elig 10-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Rafael Montalvo 22 – 1-0.0 – –
Aurelio Lopez 37 FA-elig 45-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Robbie Wine Jr. 23 – 9-0.1 – –
Manny Hernandez 25 – 9-0.1 – –
Mark Knudson↔ MIL 25 – 9-0.1 – –
Bert Pena 26 – 15-0.1 – –
Tom Funk 24 – 8-0.2 – –
Jeff Calhoun 28 pre-arb 20-0.2 0.1 -0.2
Frank DiPino↔ CHC 29 arb 31-0.4 0.1 -0.3
Eric Bullock 26 – 6-0.5 – –
Julio Solano 26 – 16-0.8 – –

Key additions (new vs 1985)

PlayerfWAR
Billy Hatcher1.2
Danny Darwin1.2
Tony Walker0.7
Davey Lopes0.6
Larry Andersen0.3
Dan Driessen0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1985)

Player1985 fWAR
Jerry Mumphrey1.1
Joe Niekro0.7
Enos Cabell0.4
Chris Jones0.0
German Rivera-0.1
Ron Mathis-0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

1986 payroll
$10.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 1986, 1986–1992. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Nolan Ryan Jr.3920.000$1.1M$1.2M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Bob Knepper3210.000$1.0M$1.0M$1.0M$43kFREE AGENT
Terry Puhl299.000$850k$900k$950k$950k$800kFREE AGENT
Jose Cruz3816.000$755k$755kFREE AGENT
Mike Scott317.000$667k$692k$667k$1.3M$2.0M$2.4MFREE AGENT
Dave Smith316.000$650k$700k$1.1M$1.1M$1.1MFREE AGENT
Phil Garner3713.000$600k$279kFREE AGENT
Dickie Thon287.000$600k$675kFREE AGENT
Alan Ashby3413.000$525k$575k$450k$550kFREE AGENT
Craig Reynolds3311.000$417k$417k$500k$600kFREE AGENT
Dan Driessen3413.000$372kFREE AGENT
Denny Walling3211.000$367k$595k$445kFREE AGENT$300k
Aurelio Lopez3712.000$223k$150kFREE AGENT
Larry Andersen3311.000$190k$300k$450k$475k$742kFREE AGENT
Davey Lopes4114.000$189k$550kFREE AGENT
Danny Darwin308.000$188k$740k$760k$855k$1.2MFREE AGENT
Matt Keough309.000$34kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Bill Doran284.000$550kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Bass274.000$310kARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank DiPino295.000$142kFREE AGENT
John Mizerock253.000$60kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Solano263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Glenn Davis252.000$120kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Calhoun282.000$95kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Pankovits302.000$85kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Hatcher252.000$80kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Deshaies262.000$65kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Kerfeld221.000$65kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Bailey242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Bullock26–—
Tom Funk24–—
Ty Gainey25–—
Manny Hernandez25–—
Mark Knudson251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Madden28–—
Louie Meadows250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Montalvo22–—
Bert Pena26–—
Tony Walker26–—
Robbie Wine Jr.23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 1986; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.