RRosternomics

Rockies COL

GM: Daniel O'Dowd

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.56× league · TAB -6.5
-6.5TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-7.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars29th/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
37%dead money %23rd/30
0.414win %27th/30
20.6roster fWAR29th/30
-8surplus $M (value vs cost)15th/30
$40Mpayroll $M27th/30

Roster

CFCory Sullivan 83GLarry Bigbie 17GDustan Mohr 10G
LFMatt Holliday 123GCory Sullivan 24GDustan Mohr 17G
RFBrad Hawpe 89GDustan Mohr 55GJorge Piedra 17G
SSClint Barmes 80GDesi Relaford 37GOmar Quintanilla 31G
2BLuis Gonzalez 83GAaron Miles 79GEddy Garabito 18G
3BGarrett Atkins 136GDesi Relaford 21GLuis Gonzalez 12G
1BTodd Helton 144GRyan Shealy 19GLuis Gonzalez 10G
STARTERSJeff Francis 1.9WARJason Jennings 1.3WARByung-Hyun Kim 1.0WARAaron Cook 1.0WARSun-Woo Kim 0.8WAR
CDanny Ardoin 80GJD Closser 80GTodd Greene 33G
DHRyan Shealy 5GTim Olson 1GJorge Piedra 1G
BULLPEN Brian Fuentes 31svMike DeJean 20hScott Dohmann 7hDavid Cortes 4hRandy Williams 4hRyan Speier 2hMarcos Carvajal 0hBlaine Neal 0h
CDanny Ardoin 80 · JD Closser 80 · Todd Greene 33
1BTodd Helton 144 · Ryan Shealy 19 · Luis Gonzalez 10
2BLuis Gonzalez 83 · Aaron Miles 79 · Eddy Garabito 18
3BGarrett Atkins 136 · Desi Relaford 21 · Luis Gonzalez 12
SSClint Barmes 80 · Desi Relaford 37 · Omar Quintanilla 31
LFMatt Holliday 123 · Cory Sullivan 24 · Dustan Mohr 17
CFCory Sullivan 83 · Larry Bigbie 17 · Dustan Mohr 10
RFBrad Hawpe 89 · Dustan Mohr 55 · Jorge Piedra 17
DHRyan Shealy 5 · Tim Olson 1 · Jorge Piedra 1
SPJeff Francis 1.9 · Jason Jennings 1.3 · Byung-Hyun Kim 1.0 · Aaron Cook 1.0 · Sun-Woo Kim 0.8
BP Brian Fuentes 31 · Mike DeJean 20 · Scott Dohmann 7 · David Cortes 4 · Randy Williams 4 · Ryan Speier 2 · Marcos Carvajal 0 · Blaine Neal 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Todd Helton 31 FA-elig 1444.1 12.6 -4.9
Matt Holliday 25 pre-arb 1252.6 0.4 +4.6
Garrett Atkins 25 pre-arb 1381.9 0.3 +3.2
Jeff Francis 24 pre-arb 331.9 0.3 +3.2
Clint Barmes 26 pre-arb 811.7 0.3 +2.9
Brian Fuentes 29 arb 781.5 0.3 +2.4
Jason Jennings 26 arb 221.3 2.4 +0.1
Mike DeJean↔ NYM 34 FA-elig 381.2 0.7 +1.5
Danny Ardoin 30 801.0
Aaron Cook 26 arb 131.0 0.3 +1.6
Byung-Hyun Kim 26 FA-elig 401.0 6.6 -4.7
Dustan Mohr 29 arb 981.0 0.9 +0.9
Jay Witasick↔ OAK 32 320.8
Sun-Woo Kim↔ WSN 27 120.8
Jorge Piedra 26 610.7
Cory Sullivan 25 pre-arb 1390.6 0.3 +0.8
Ryan Shealy 25 360.5
Shawn Chacon↔ NYY 27 arb 130.5 1.1 -0.2
Michael Restovich↔ PIT 26 140.5
Jamey Wright 30 FA-elig 350.4 0.6 +0.2
Joe Kennedy↔ OAK 26 arb 160.3 1.0 -0.5
Choo Freeman 25 180.2
Ryan Speier 25 pre-arb 220.2 0.3 -0.0
Eddy Garabito 28 420.1
Aquilino Lopez↔ PHI 30 10.1
Dan Miceli 34 190.1
David Cortes 31 500.1
Javier López↔ ARI 27 pre-arb 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Alfredo Amezaga↔ PIT 27 arb 30.0 0.2 -0.1
Ryan Spilborghs 25 10.0 0.1 -0.1
Todd Greene 34 FA-elig 380.0 0.7 -0.6
Eric Byrnes↔ BAL 29 arb 15-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Marcos Carvajal 20 pre-arb 39-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Randy Williams↔ SDP 29 30-0.0
Tim Olson 26 3-0.0
Zach Day↔ WSN 27 arb 5-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Luis Gonzalez 26 pre-arb 128-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Allan Simpson↔ CIN 27 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.2
JD Closser 25 pre-arb 92-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Scott Dohmann 27 pre-arb 32-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Blaine Neal↔ BOS 27 arb 11-0.2 0.2 -0.5
Mike Esposito 23 3-0.2
Jose Acevedo 27 36-0.2
Bobby Seay 27 17-0.2
Preston Wilson↔ WSN 30 FA-elig 71-0.2 6.4 -6.8
Jeff Baker 24 pre-arb 12-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Larry Bigbie↔ BAL 27 arb 23-0.3 0.1 -0.6
Anderson Machado↔ CIN 24 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.2 -0.8
Chin-hui Tsao 24 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Omar Quintanilla 23 39-0.4
Matt Anderson 28 12-0.4
Brad Hawpe 26 pre-arb 101-0.6 0.3 -1.5
Desi Relaford 31 FA-elig 73-0.7 0.9 -2.2
Aaron Miles 28 pre-arb 99-0.8 0.3 -1.9

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
Mike DeJean1.2
Danny Ardoin1.0
Byung-Hyun Kim1.0
Dustan Mohr1.0
Jay Witasick0.8
Sun-Woo Kim0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Jeromy Burnitz3.1
Vinny Castilla2.5
Larry Walker1.6
Jeff Fassero1.3
Royce Clayton1.2
Shawn Estes1.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$40.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Todd Helton318.000$12.6M$16.6M$16.6M$16.6M$16.6M$17.8M$20.3M
Byung-Hyun Kim266.000$6.6M$1.2M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Preston Wilson307.000$6.4MFREE AGENT
Desi Relaford319.000$950kFREE AGENT
Mike DeJean348.000$662k$1.1MFREE AGENT
Todd Greene349.000$650kFREE AGENT
Jamey Wright309.000$550kFREE AGENT
Dan Miceli3412.000FREE AGENT
Jay Witasick329.000FREE AGENT
Matt Anderson287.000FREE AGENT
David Cortes316.000$350kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Jason Jennings264.000$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Chacon274.000$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Kennedy264.000$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustan Mohr294.000$950kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Fuentes294.000$328kARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Cook263.000$326kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Byrnes295.000$262kFREE AGENT
Blaine Neal274.000$186kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Amezaga273.000$160kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Day273.000$105kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Larry Bigbie274.000$97kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Seay274.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Ardoin305.000FREE AGENT
Sun-Woo Kim274.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Acevedo274.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Matt Holliday251.000$366kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Miles282.000$326kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Gonzalez261.000$324kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Dohmann271.000$319kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JD Closser251.000$317kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chin-hui Tsao242.000$317kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clint Barmes262.000$317kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Francis241.000$317kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Atkins252.000$317kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Hawpe261.000$317kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Sullivan250.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcos Carvajal200.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Speier250.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Baker240.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anderson Machado242.000$211kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Spilborghs250.000$112kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allan Simpson271.000$58kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier López272.000$30kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Restovich26
Eddy Garabito28
Choo Freeman251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Olson26
Aquilino Lopez302.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Piedra261.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Williams291.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Shealy250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Esposito23
Omar Quintanilla230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rockies 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3