COL⇄SEA

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$4.8M net +2.6

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $29M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 3.0 ± 4 expected · 2.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2006 odds 7% → 8% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yorvit TorrealbaC·27y·R/R

+$8.1M+$8.1M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 3.0± 4 exp WARrealized 2.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Bill Bavasi net +$4.8M net -2.6

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2006 odds 15% → 13% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marcos CarvajalP·21y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.