OAK⇄COL

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$12.0M net +3.2

received +$38.4M+$38.4M ± $25M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 4.3 ± 3 expected · 1.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2005 odds 42% → 49% (+7.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe KennedyP·26y·R/L

+$39.4M+$39.4M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 4.0± 3 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

2.02/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jay WitasickP·32y·R/R

−$1.3M−$1.3M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.77 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$12.0M net -3.2

received +$88.8M+$88.8M ± $38M expected surplus · −$15.2M realized received 9.4 ± 5 expected · -1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2005 odds 1% → 1% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric ByrnesOF·29y·R/R

+$84.2M+$84.2M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 7.5± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

2.54/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Omar Quintanilla2B/SS·23y·L/R

+$4.8M+$4.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized -1.3

Prior

#33 overall draft pick → 0.34/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.