RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Chris Antonetti

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.63× league · TAB -1.7
-1.7TAB — talent above budget16th/30
+4.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-6.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
43%dead money %22nd/30
0.494win %16th/30
26.9roster fWAR22nd/30
+6surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$60Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFGrady Sizemore 56GEzequiel Carrera 55GMichael Brantley 52G
LFMichael Brantley 66GShelley Duncan 37GAustin Kearns 36G
RFKosuke Fukudome 131GShin-Soo Choo 85GAustin Kearns 19G
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 151GJason Donald 16GAdam Everett 4G
2BJason Kipnis 36GCord Phelps 20GJason Donald 19G
3BJack Hannahan 104GLonnie Chisenhall 58GAdam Everett 16G
1BMatt LaPorta 97GCarlos Santana 66GJack Hannahan 8G
STARTERSJustin Masterson 5.1WARJosh Tomlin 2.2WARRoberto Hernandez 1.5WARCarlos Carrasco 1.4WARUbaldo Jiménez 1.1WAR
CCarlos Santana 95GLou Marson 78G
DHTravis Hafner 85GJim Thome 78GShelley Duncan 23G
BULLPEN★ Chris Perez 36svTony Sipp 24hVinnie Pestano 23hJoe Smith 16hRafael Perez 12hChad Durbin 3hFrank Herrmann 0hJosh Judy 0h
CCarlos Santana 95 · Lou Marson 78
1BMatt LaPorta 97 · Carlos Santana 66 · Jack Hannahan 8
2BJason Kipnis 36 · Cord Phelps 20 · Jason Donald 19
3BJack Hannahan 104 · Lonnie Chisenhall 58 · Adam Everett 16
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 151 · Jason Donald 16 · Adam Everett 4
LFMichael Brantley 66 · Shelley Duncan 37 · Austin Kearns 36
CFGrady Sizemore 56 · Ezequiel Carrera 55 · Michael Brantley 52
RFKosuke Fukudome 131 · Shin-Soo Choo 85 · Austin Kearns 19
DHTravis Hafner 85 · Jim Thome 78 · Shelley Duncan 23
SPJustin Masterson 5.1 · Josh Tomlin 2.2 · Roberto Hernandez 1.5 · Carlos Carrasco 1.4 · Ubaldo Jiménez 1.1
BP★ Chris Perez 36 · Tony Sipp 24 · Vinnie Pestano 23 · Joe Smith 16 · Rafael Perez 12 · Chad Durbin 3 · Frank Herrmann 0 · Josh Judy 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Justin Masterson 26 arb 345.1 0.5 +11.9
Asdrúbal Cabrera 25 arb 1513.7 2.0 +7.0
Jack Hannahan 31 arb 1102.4 0.5 +5.3
Josh Tomlin 26 pre-arb 272.2 0.4 +5.0
Vinnie Pestano 26 pre-arb 681.6 0.4 +3.6
Shin-Soo Choo 28 FA-elig 851.5 4.0 -0.2
Roberto Hernandez 30 arb 321.5 6.3 -2.7
Carlos Carrasco 24 pre-arb 211.4 0.4 +2.9
Michael Brantley 24 pre-arb 1141.3 0.4 +2.8
Joe Smith 27 arb 711.3 0.9 +2.3
Travis Hafner 34 FA-elig 941.3 13.0 -9.9
Ubaldo Jiménez↔ COL 27 arb 111.1 1.0 +1.7
Jeanmar Gómez 23 pre-arb 110.9 0.4 +1.7
Rafael Perez 29 arb 710.8 1.3 +0.7
Jason Kipnis 24 – 360.8 0.4 +1.6
David Huff 26 pre-arb 110.8 0.4 +1.4
Lonnie Chisenhall 22 – 660.7 0.4 +1.4
Shelley Duncan 31 arb 760.7 0.5 +1.3
Jim Thome↔ MIN 40 FA-elig 220.5 0.7 +0.6
Jason Donald 26 pre-arb 390.5 0.4 +0.8
Carlos Santana 25 pre-arb 1550.5 0.4 +0.8
Chris Perez 25 arb 640.5 2.2 -1.1
Zach McAllister 23 – 40.5 0.4 +0.7
Ezequiel Carrera 24 – 680.3 0.4 +0.4
Tony Sipp 27 pre-arb 690.2 0.4 +0.1
Frank Herrmann 27 pre-arb 400.2 0.4 +0.1
Grady Sizemore 28 FA-elig 710.2 7.7 -7.2
Nick Hagadone 25 arb 90.2 0.4 +0.0
Zach Putnam 23 – 80.1 0.0 +0.2
Travis Buck 27 arb 500.1 0.6 -0.4
Trevor Crowe 27 pre-arb 150.1 0.4 -0.3
Mitch Talbot 27 arb 120.0 0.4 -0.4
Corey Kluber 25 – 30.0 0.0 -0.0
Justin Germano 28 FA-elig 9-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Alex White↔ COL 22 – 3-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Chad Durbin 33 FA-elig 56-0.2 0.8 -1.3
Kosuke Fukudome↔ CHC 34 arb 59-0.2 5.9 -6.4
Josh Judy 25 pre-arb 12-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Luis Valbuena 25 pre-arb 17-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Jerad Head 28 – 10-0.2 – –
Adam Everett 34 FA-elig 34-0.4 0.7 -1.7
Matt LaPorta 26 pre-arb 107-0.6 0.4 -2.0
Orlando Cabrera↔ SFG 36 FA-elig 91-0.7 0.7 -2.5
Austin Kearns 31 FA-elig 57-0.8 1.3 -3.3
Cord Phelps 24 pre-arb 35-0.9 0.4 -2.6
Lou Marson 25 arb 79-1.3 0.4 -3.6

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Jack Hannahan2.4
Ubaldo Jiménez1.1
Jason Kipnis0.8
Lonnie Chisenhall0.7
Jim Thome0.5
Zach McAllister0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Russell Branyan1.4
Jhonny Peralta0.7
Jayson Nix0.7
Jake Westbrook0.7
Aaron Laffey0.6
Luke Carlin0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$60.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Travis Hafner348.009$13.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Grady Sizemore286.056$7.7MFREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez308.128$6.3M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Austin Kearns318.145$1.3MFREE AGENT
Chad Durbin336.102$800kFREE AGENT
Jim Thome4018.042$710kFREE AGENT
Orlando Cabrera3612.123$700kFREE AGENT
Adam Everett3410.000$700kFREE AGENT
Justin Germano287.000$416kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Kosuke Fukudome343.000$5.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shin-Soo Choo283.119$4.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera253.027$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Perez293.157$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ubaldo Jiménez273.087$962kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Smith273.091$870kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hagadone253.056$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Chris Perez252.136$2.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Buck272.123$625kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Hannahan312.034$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shelley Duncan311.129$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Masterson262.108$468kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Sipp271.138$437kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Crowe272.091$436kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Talbot271.149$432kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt LaPorta262.063$431kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lou Marson251.036$424kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Donald261.158$423kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Brantley240.131$422kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank Herrmann272.147$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin260.069$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Santana250.115$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco240.067$416kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinnie Pestano260.011$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Kipnis240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Huff261.055$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Valbuena251.162$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ezequiel Carrera240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cord Phelps240.095$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeanmar Gómez230.065$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McAllister230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lonnie Chisenhall220.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Judy250.037$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex White222.155$124kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Putnam230.000$38kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Kluber250.000$23kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerad Head28–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.