RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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GM: Mark Shapiro

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.54× league · TAB -6.1
-6.1TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
-4.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars28th/30
-7.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
37%dead money %19th/30
0.426win %24th/30
20.6roster fWAR26th/30
-5surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/30
$49Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFTrevor Crowe 68GMichael Brantley 65GGrady Sizemore 32G
LFTrevor Crowe 48GShelley Duncan 41GMichael Brantley 7G
RFShin-Soo Choo 142GShelley Duncan 8GTrevor Crowe 4G
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 95GJason Donald 47GDrew Sutton 8G
2BLuis Valbuena 71GJason Donald 41GJayson Nix 28G
3BJayson Nix 56GAndy Marte 45GLuis Valbuena 9G
1BMatt LaPorta 93GAndy Marte 32GJordan Brown 10G
STARTERSRoberto Hernandez 2.8WARJustin Masterson 2.6WARMitch Talbot 1.4WARJosh Tomlin 0.7WARAaron Laffey 0.6WAR
CLou Marson 87GCarlos Santana 40GChris Gimenez 24G
DHTravis Hafner 109GShelley Duncan 17GJayson Nix 9G
BULLPEN★ Chris Perez 23svJoe Smith 16hTony Sipp 15hRafael Perez 13hFrank Herrmann 7hJustin Germano 2hJensen Lewis 1hHector Ambriz 0h
CLou Marson 87 · Carlos Santana 40 · Chris Gimenez 24
1BMatt LaPorta 93 · Andy Marte 32 · Jordan Brown 10
2BLuis Valbuena 71 · Jason Donald 41 · Jayson Nix 28
3BJayson Nix 56 · Andy Marte 45 · Luis Valbuena 9
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 95 · Jason Donald 47 · Drew Sutton 8
LFTrevor Crowe 48 · Shelley Duncan 41 · Michael Brantley 7
CFTrevor Crowe 68 · Michael Brantley 65 · Grady Sizemore 32
RFShin-Soo Choo 142 · Shelley Duncan 8 · Trevor Crowe 4
DHTravis Hafner 109 · Shelley Duncan 17 · Jayson Nix 9
SPRoberto Hernandez 2.8 · Justin Masterson 2.6 · Mitch Talbot 1.4 · Josh Tomlin 0.7 · Aaron Laffey 0.6
BP★ Chris Perez 23 · Joe Smith 16 · Tony Sipp 15 · Rafael Perez 13 · Frank Herrmann 7 · Justin Germano 2 · Jensen Lewis 1 · Hector Ambriz 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Shin-Soo Choo 27 arb 1446.0 0.5 +13.7
Roberto Hernandez 29 arb 332.8 5.1 +1.5
Justin Masterson 25 pre-arb 342.6 0.4 +5.6
Travis Hafner 33 FA-elig 1181.9 11.5 -7.0
Carlos Santana 24 – 461.8 0.3 +4.0
Mitch Talbot 26 pre-arb 281.4 0.4 +2.9
Russell Branyan↔ SEA 34 FA-elig 521.4 0.7 +2.5
Austin Kearns↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 841.2 0.7 +2.2
Chris Perez 24 pre-arb 631.0 0.4 +1.9
Shelley Duncan 30 – 850.9 – –
Asdrúbal Cabrera 24 arb 970.9 0.4 +1.6
Jhonny Peralta↔ DET 28 FA-elig 910.7 3.0 -1.2
Jayson Nix↔ CHW 27 pre-arb 780.7 0.3 +1.4
Jake Westbrook↔ STL 32 FA-elig 210.7 7.0 -5.3
Josh Tomlin 25 – 120.7 – –
Aaron Laffey 25 arb 290.6 0.4 +1.0
Jason Donald 25 – 880.5 – –
Carlos Carrasco 23 – 70.4 0.1 +1.0
Luke Carlin 29 – 60.4 – –
Rafael Perez 28 arb 700.3 0.8 +0.0
Jeanmar Gómez 22 – 110.3 0.4 +0.4
Jensen Lewis 26 arb 370.3 0.4 +0.3
Drew Sutton↔ CIN 27 – 110.2 – –
Chris Gimenez 27 – 280.1 – –
Jess Todd 24 – 50.1 – –
Vinnie Pestano 25 – 50.0 – –
Andy Marte 26 arb 810.0 0.4 -0.4
Frank Herrmann 26 – 400.0 – –
Jamey Wright↔ SEA 35 FA-elig 18-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Mark Grudzielanek 40 FA-elig 30-0.1 0.6 -0.8
Jordan Brown 26 – 26-0.1 – –
Justin Germano 27 – 23-0.2 – –
Joe Smith 26 arb 53-0.2 0.4 -0.9
David Huff 25 pre-arb 15-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Kerry Wood↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 23-0.2 5.1 -5.7
Grady Sizemore 27 FA-elig 33-0.2 5.8 -6.3
Anderson Hernandez↔ HOU 27 – 22-0.3 – –
Hector Ambriz 26 pre-arb 34-0.4 0.4 -1.2
Michael Brantley 23 pre-arb 72-0.5 0.4 -1.6
Trevor Crowe 26 – 122-0.6 – –
Tony Sipp 26 pre-arb 70-0.7 0.4 -1.9
Mike Redmond 39 FA-elig 22-0.7 0.8 -2.4
Matt LaPorta 25 pre-arb 110-0.7 0.4 -2.1
Lou Marson 24 pre-arb 87-1.2 0.4 -3.3
Luis Valbuena 24 pre-arb 91-1.3 0.4 -3.5

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Carlos Santana1.8
Mitch Talbot1.4
Russell Branyan1.4
Austin Kearns1.2
Shelley Duncan0.9
Jayson Nix0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Cliff Lee4.1
Carl Pavano1.8
Victor Martinez1.4
Mark DeRosa1.3
Jamey Carroll1.3
Ryan Garko1.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$49.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Travis Hafner338.000$11.5M$13.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Jake Westbrook3210.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Grady Sizemore276.000$5.8M$7.7MFREE AGENT
Kerry Wood3312.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Jhonny Peralta287.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Redmond3912.000$850kFREE AGENT
Russell Branyan3412.000$716kFREE AGENT
Austin Kearns308.000$700k$1.3MFREE AGENT
Mark Grudzielanek4015.000$600kFREE AGENT
Jamey Wright3514.000$352kFREE AGENT
Justin Germano276.000—$416kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Roberto Hernandez294.000$5.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Perez284.000$795kARB 3FREE AGENT
Shin-Soo Choo275.000$461kFREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera243.000$445kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Smith263.000$428kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jensen Lewis263.000$422kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Laffey253.000$422kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Marte265.000$413kFREE AGENT
Anderson Hernandez275.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Justin Masterson252.000$427kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Perez242.000$424kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Valbuena242.000$415kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Huff251.000$411kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Sipp261.000$407kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt LaPorta251.000$403kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lou Marson242.000$401kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Brantley231.000$401kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Talbot262.000$401kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hector Ambriz260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeanmar Gómez220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayson Nix272.000$321kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Santana240.000$251kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco231.000$72kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Carlin290.019—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Sutton271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Donald250.158—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shelley Duncan300.129—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Crowe261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Gimenez270.041—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Brown26–—
Frank Herrmann261.147—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinnie Pestano250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jess Todd24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.