RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Chris Antonetti

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.72× league · TAB -9.0
-9.0TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-9.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars21st/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
52%dead money %30th/30
0.420win %26th/30
21.2roster fWAR25th/30
-17surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$72Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFMichael Brantley 144GEzequiel Carrera 15GAaron Cunningham 11G
LFShelley Duncan 57GJohnny Damon 56GAaron Cunningham 52G
RFShin-Soo Choo 154GAaron Cunningham 13GShelley Duncan 2G
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 136GBrent Lillibridge 21GJason Donald 10G
2BJason Kipnis 146GJason Donald 8GBrent Lillibridge 6G
3BJack Hannahan 96GLonnie Chisenhall 30GBrent Lillibridge 18G
1BCasey Kotchman 137GBrent Lillibridge 23GCarlos Santana 21G
STARTERSJustin Masterson 2.8WARZach McAllister 1.7WARUbaldo Jiménez 0.9WARCorey Kluber 0.8WARJosh Tomlin 0.4WAR
CCarlos Santana 100GLou Marson 69GLuke Carlin 4G
DHTravis Hafner 61GCarlos Santana 27GShelley Duncan 17G
BULLPEN★ Chris Perez 39svVinnie Pestano 36hJoe Smith 21hTony Sipp 12hEsmil Rogers 8hNick Hagadone 2hScott Maine 1hCody Allen 1h
CCarlos Santana 100 · Lou Marson 69 · Luke Carlin 4
1BCasey Kotchman 137 · Brent Lillibridge 23 · Carlos Santana 21
2BJason Kipnis 146 · Jason Donald 8 · Brent Lillibridge 6
3BJack Hannahan 96 · Lonnie Chisenhall 30 · Brent Lillibridge 18
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 136 · Brent Lillibridge 21 · Jason Donald 10
LFShelley Duncan 57 · Johnny Damon 56 · Aaron Cunningham 52
CFMichael Brantley 144 · Ezequiel Carrera 15 · Aaron Cunningham 11
RFShin-Soo Choo 154 · Aaron Cunningham 13 · Shelley Duncan 2
DHTravis Hafner 61 · Carlos Santana 27 · Shelley Duncan 17
SPJustin Masterson 2.8 · Zach McAllister 1.7 · Ubaldo Jiménez 0.9 · Corey Kluber 0.8 · Josh Tomlin 0.4
BP★ Chris Perez 39 · Vinnie Pestano 36 · Joe Smith 21 · Tony Sipp 12 · Esmil Rogers 8 · Nick Hagadone 2 · Scott Maine 1 · Cody Allen 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jason Kipnis 25 pre-arb 1523.4 0.5 +8.3
Shin-Soo Choo 29 FA-elig 1553.2 4.9 +3.4
Justin Masterson 27 arb 342.8 3.8 +3.4
Michael Brantley 25 arb 1492.6 0.5 +6.1
Asdrúbal Cabrera 26 arb 1432.5 4.5 +1.9
Zach McAllister 24 pre-arb 221.7 0.5 +3.9
Vinnie Pestano 27 pre-arb 701.4 0.5 +3.2
Derek Lowe↔ NYY 39 FA-elig 211.2 8.3 -5.1
Chris Perez 26 arb 611.1 4.5 -1.6
Esmil Rogers↔ COL 26 arb 440.9 0.3 +2.1
Ubaldo Jiménez 28 FA-elig 310.9 4.2 -1.9
Joe Smith 28 arb 720.8 1.8 +0.4
Corey Kluber 26 pre-arb 120.8 0.2 +1.9
Travis Hafner 35 FA-elig 660.5 13.0 -11.8
Carlos Santana 26 pre-arb 1430.5 0.5 +0.7
Chris Seddon 28 pre-arb 170.4 0.5 +0.6
Josh Tomlin 27 pre-arb 210.4 0.5 +0.4
Ezequiel Carrera 25 pre-arb 480.3 0.5 +0.3
Frank Herrmann 28 pre-arb 150.3 0.5 +0.2
Cody Allen 23 – 270.3 0.5 +0.2
Scott Barnes 24 – 160.2 0.5 -0.0
Lonnie Chisenhall 23 pre-arb 430.2 0.5 -0.0
David Huff 27 arb 60.2 0.5 -0.1
Jeremy Accardo↔ OAK 30 – 260.1 0.9 -0.6
Tony Sipp 28 arb 630.0 0.5 -0.4
Cord Phelps 25 pre-arb 140.0 0.5 -0.4
Nick Hagadone 26 arb 270.0 0.5 -0.4
Jack Hannahan 32 FA-elig 1050.0 1.1 -1.1
Jairo Asencio↔ CHC 29 arb 18-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Luke Carlin 31 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Scott Maine↔ CHC 27 pre-arb 9-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Jeanmar Gómez 24 pre-arb 20-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Rafael Perez 30 FA-elig 8-0.1 2.0 -2.1
Russ Canzler 26 pre-arb 26-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Shelley Duncan 32 arb 81-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Brent Lillibridge↔ BOS 28 arb 43-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Matt LaPorta 27 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Vinny Rottino↔ NYM 32 pre-arb 18-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Jose Lopez↔ CHW 28 FA-elig 66-0.2 0.7 -1.2
Juan Diaz 23 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Roberto Hernandez 31 FA-elig 3-0.3 3.0 -3.7
Johnny Damon 38 FA-elig 64-0.3 1.2 -2.0
Thomas Neal 24 – 9-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Dan Wheeler 34 FA-elig 13-0.3 0.9 -1.8
Jason Donald 27 pre-arb 43-0.4 0.5 -1.4
Aaron Cunningham 26 arb 72-0.5 0.5 -1.9
Lou Marson 26 arb 70-0.9 0.5 -2.7
Casey Kotchman 29 FA-elig 142-1.4 3.0 -6.6

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Derek Lowe1.2
Esmil Rogers0.9
Chris Seddon0.4
Cody Allen0.3
Scott Barnes0.2
Jeremy Accardo0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Jim Thome0.5
Zach Putnam0.1
Travis Buck0.1
Trevor Crowe0.1
Mitch Talbot0.0
Justin Germano-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$71.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Travis Hafner359.009$13.0MFREE AGENT
Derek Lowe3914.100$8.3MFREE AGENT
Casey Kotchman296.144$3.0MFREE AGENT
Johnny Damon3816.051$1.2MFREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler349.047$900kFREE AGENT
Jose Lopez288.000$652kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Shin-Soo Choo294.119$4.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera264.027$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Perez263.136$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ubaldo Jiménez284.087$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Masterson273.108$3.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez315.125$3.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Perez304.157$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Smith284.091$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Hannahan323.065$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Accardo304.128$867kARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Cunningham264.000$482kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hagadone263.056$480kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Lillibridge284.000$211kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Tony Sipp282.138$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Santana261.115$502kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shelley Duncan322.099$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Brantley251.131$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin271.069$494kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lou Marson262.036$492kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinnie Pestano271.011$491kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Huff271.117$486kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Donald271.158$484kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeanmar Gómez240.117$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Kipnis250.069$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Seddon280.109$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Neal24–$480k
Russ Canzler260.051$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McAllister240.011$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lonnie Chisenhall230.094$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank Herrmann282.147$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Diaz230.012$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt LaPorta272.063$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Carlin312.019$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ezequiel Carrera250.082$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Barnes240.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cord Phelps250.095$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Allen230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Esmil Rogers261.135$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jairo Asencio290.049$288kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinny Rottino320.112$240kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Kluber260.011$165kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Maine270.165$144kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.