RRosternomics

Guardians CLE

GM: Mark Shapiro

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.59× league · TAB +22.3
+22.3TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+17.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-1.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
33%dead money %20th/30
0.574win %6th/30
50.1roster fWAR1st/30
+52surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$43Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFGrady Sizemore 155GCoco Crisp 10GFranklin Gutierrez 2G
LFCoco Crisp 138GJason Dubois 41GRyan Ludwick 9G
RFCasey Blake 138GRyan Ludwick 6GJason Dubois 4G
SSJhonny Peralta 141GRamón Vázquez 14GJosé Hernández 1G
2BRonnie Belliard 141GRamón Vázquez 12GJosé Hernández 4G
3BAaron Boone 142GJosé Hernández 21GCasey Blake 6G
1BBen Broussard 138GJosé Hernández 45GJeff Liefer 5G
STARTERSCC Sabathia 3.8WARCliff Lee 3.7WARKevin Millwood 3.4WARJake Westbrook 2.9WARScott Elarton 0.8WAR
CVictor Martinez 142GJosh Bard 31G
DHTravis Hafner 129GJason Dubois 10GJeff Liefer 8G
BULLPEN Bob Wickman 45svBob Howry 29hArthur Rhodes 16hScott Sauerbeck 14hRafael Betancourt 10hMatt Miller 4hFernando Cabrera 1hDavid Riske 0h
CVictor Martinez 142 · Josh Bard 31
1BBen Broussard 138 · José Hernández 45 · Jeff Liefer 5
2BRonnie Belliard 141 · Ramón Vázquez 12 · José Hernández 4
3BAaron Boone 142 · José Hernández 21 · Casey Blake 6
SSJhonny Peralta 141 · Ramón Vázquez 14 · José Hernández 1
LFCoco Crisp 138 · Jason Dubois 41 · Ryan Ludwick 9
CFGrady Sizemore 155 · Coco Crisp 10 · Franklin Gutierrez 2
RFCasey Blake 138 · Ryan Ludwick 6 · Jason Dubois 4
DHTravis Hafner 129 · Jason Dubois 10 · Jeff Liefer 8
SPCC Sabathia 3.8 · Cliff Lee 3.7 · Kevin Millwood 3.4 · Jake Westbrook 2.9 · Scott Elarton 0.8
BP Bob Wickman 45 · Bob Howry 29 · Arthur Rhodes 16 · Scott Sauerbeck 14 · Rafael Betancourt 10 · Matt Miller 4 · Fernando Cabrera 1 · David Riske 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Grady Sizemore 22 pre-arb 1585.6 0.3 +10.2
Travis Hafner 28 arb 1375.3 0.4 +9.6
Coco Crisp 25 arb 1455.2 0.4 +9.5
Victor Martinez 26 arb 1474.7 0.4 +8.5
Jhonny Peralta 23 pre-arb 1414.3 0.3 +7.7
CC Sabathia 24 arb 313.8 5.2 +1.9
Cliff Lee 26 arb 323.7 0.3 +6.7
Kevin Millwood 30 FA-elig 303.4 7.0 -0.7
Ronnie Belliard 30 FA-elig 1453.3 2.5 +3.8
Jake Westbrook 27 arb 342.9 2.9 +2.6
Casey Blake 31 FA-elig 1471.9 2.2 +1.4
Rafael Betancourt 30 pre-arb 541.5 0.3 +2.4
Bob Howry 31 FA-elig 791.4 0.9 +1.7
Arthur Rhodes 35 FA-elig 471.2 3.7 -1.4
Ben Broussard 28 arb 1420.9 0.4 +1.3
Scott Elarton 29 FA-elig 310.8 0.8 +0.6
Matt Miller 33 pre-arb 230.5 0.3 +0.6
Alex Cora↔ BOS 29 FA-elig 490.5 1.4 -0.5
Fernando Cabrera 23 150.5
Aaron Boone 32 FA-elig 1430.2 3.0 -2.6
Jason Davis 25 arb 110.2 0.3 +0.0
Kazuhito Tadano 25 10.1
Franklin Gutierrez 22 70.1 0.3 -0.2
Ramón Vázquez↔ BOS 28 arb 120.0 0.2 -0.1
Jody Gerut↔ CHC 27 pre-arb 440.0 0.3 -0.2
Scott Sauerbeck 33 FA-elig 580.0 0.5 -0.5
Juan Gonzalez 35 FA-elig 1-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Ryan Garko 24 1-0.0
Jason Dubois↔ CHC 26 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.1 -0.2
David Riske 28 FA-elig 58-0.1 1.4 -1.6
Ryan Ludwick 26 arb 19-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Josh Bard 27 arb 34-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Jeremy Guthrie 26 1-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Brian Tallet 27 2-0.2
José Hernández 35 FA-elig 84-0.2 1.8 -2.2
Brandon Phillips 24 6-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Bob Wickman 36 FA-elig 64-0.3 2.8 -3.3
Jeff Liefer 30 19-0.4

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
Kevin Millwood3.4
Arthur Rhodes1.2
Alex Cora0.5
Aaron Boone0.2
Franklin Gutierrez0.1
Ramón Vázquez0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Omar Vizquel3.2
Alex Escobar0.9
Matt Lawton III0.6
Jason Stanford0.3
Josh Phelps0.2
Scott Stewart0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$42.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Kevin Millwood308.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Arthur Rhodes3514.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Aaron Boone328.000$3.0M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Bob Wickman3613.000$2.8M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Ronnie Belliard307.000$2.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Casey Blake316.000$2.2M$3.0M$3.8M$3.8MFREE AGENT
José Hernández3514.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
David Riske286.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Alex Cora297.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Bob Howry317.000$900kFREE AGENT
Scott Elarton297.000$850kFREE AGENT
Juan Gonzalez3516.000$600kFREE AGENT
Scott Sauerbeck336.000$500k$626kFREE AGENT
Jeff Liefer306.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
CC Sabathia244.000$5.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Westbrook275.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Travis Hafner283.000$377kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Martinez263.000$372kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Broussard283.000$365kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Coco Crisp253.000$365kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cliff Lee263.000$345kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Davis253.000$342kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Bard273.000$318kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Ludwick263.000$318kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips243.000$317kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Vázquez284.000$215kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Tallet273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Jeremy Guthrie261.000$625kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Betancourt302.000$339kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Miller332.000$330kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grady Sizemore221.000$318kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonny Peralta232.000$317kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franklin Gutierrez220.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jody Gerut272.000$266kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Dubois261.000$68kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cabrera231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kazuhito Tadano25
Ryan Garko240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3