CHC⇄CLE

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$24.0M+$24.0M ± $39M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 4.5 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2005 odds 24% → 24% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jody GerutOF·27y·L/L

+$23.8M+$23.8M± $39M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 4.5± 5 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.14/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2005 odds 88% → 88% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason DuboisOF·26y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#403 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.