RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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GM: Mark Shapiro

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.52× league · TAB +10.1
+10.1TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+6.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-4.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
38%dead money %22nd/30
0.494win %17th/30
36.2roster fWAR15th/30
+27surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$34Mpayroll $M27th/30

Roster

CFCoco Crisp 94GGrady Sizemore 42GAlex Escobar 21G
LFMatt Lawton III 124GCoco Crisp 37GAlex Escobar 8G
RFJody Gerut 118GMatt Lawton III 19GAlex Escobar 15G
SSOmar Vizquel 147GJohn McDonald 30GJhonny Peralta 7G
2BRonnie Belliard 151GJohn McDonald 12GLou Merloni 7G
3BCasey Blake 152GLou Merloni 10GJohn McDonald 9G
1BBen Broussard 133GLou Merloni 42GJosh Phelps 20G
STARTERSJake Westbrook 3.0WARCC Sabathia 2.8WARCliff Lee 1.1WARJason Davis 0.9WARScott Elarton 0.1WAR
CVictor Martinez 132GTim Laker 41GJosh Bard 7G
DHTravis Hafner 121GJosh Phelps 77GVictor Martinez 7G
BULLPEN★ Bob Wickman 13svRafael Betancourt 12hDavid Riske 9hBob Howry 8hMatt Miller 7hCliff Bartosh 3hRick White 2hJose Jimenez 1h
CVictor Martinez 132 · Tim Laker 41 · Josh Bard 7
1BBen Broussard 133 · Lou Merloni 42 · Josh Phelps 20
2BRonnie Belliard 151 · John McDonald 12 · Lou Merloni 7
3BCasey Blake 152 · Lou Merloni 10 · John McDonald 9
SSOmar Vizquel 147 · John McDonald 30 · Jhonny Peralta 7
LFMatt Lawton III 124 · Coco Crisp 37 · Alex Escobar 8
CFCoco Crisp 94 · Grady Sizemore 42 · Alex Escobar 21
RFJody Gerut 118 · Matt Lawton III 19 · Alex Escobar 15
DHTravis Hafner 121 · Josh Phelps 77 · Victor Martinez 7
SPJake Westbrook 3.0 · CC Sabathia 2.8 · Cliff Lee 1.1 · Jason Davis 0.9 · Scott Elarton 0.1
BP★ Bob Wickman 13 · Rafael Betancourt 12 · David Riske 9 · Bob Howry 8 · Matt Miller 7 · Cliff Bartosh 3 · Rick White 2 · Jose Jimenez 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Travis Hafner 27 pre-arb 1404.7 0.3 +7.8
Coco Crisp 24 pre-arb 1394.0 0.3 +6.5
Casey Blake 30 arb 1523.4 0.4 +5.4
Victor Martinez 25 pre-arb 1413.3 0.3 +5.4
Omar Vizquel 37 FA-elig 1483.2 6.0 -0.5
Ronnie Belliard 29 FA-elig 1523.1 1.1 +4.3
Jake Westbrook 26 arb 333.0 0.9 +4.2
CC Sabathia 23 arb 302.8 2.7 +2.1
Ben Broussard 27 pre-arb 1392.1 0.3 +3.2
Rafael Betancourt 29 pre-arb 681.8 0.3 +2.7
Matt Miller 32 – 571.2 – –
Cliff Lee 25 pre-arb 331.1 0.3 +1.6
Grady Sizemore 21 – 431.0 – –
Jason Davis 24 pre-arb 260.9 0.3 +1.2
Alex Escobar 25 arb 460.9 0.3 +1.2
Jody Gerut 26 pre-arb 1340.7 0.3 +0.8
Matt Lawton III 32 FA-elig 1500.6 7.2 -6.2
Kazuhito Tadano 24 – 140.5 – –
Bob Howry 30 – 370.4 – –
Josh Bard 26 pre-arb 70.4 0.3 +0.4
Jason Stanford 27 pre-arb 20.3 0.3 +0.1
Josh Phelps↔ TOR 26 arb 240.2 0.1 +0.3
Scott Stewart↔ LAD 28 arb 230.2 0.6 -0.3
Jeff D'Amico 28 FA-elig 70.1 0.8 -0.5
Scott Elarton↔ COL 28 FA-elig 210.1 0.3 -0.1
Bob Wickman 35 FA-elig 300.1 6.0 -5.8
John McDonald 29 arb 660.1 0.3 -0.1
Fernando Cabrera 22 – 40.1 – –
David Riske 27 arb 720.1 1.0 -0.8
Francisco Cruceta 22 – 20.1 – –
Lou Pote 32 – 20.1 – –
Lou Merloni 33 FA-elig 710.1 0.6 -0.4
Ryan Ludwick 25 pre-arb 150.1 0.3 -0.2
Ernie Young 34 – 30.1 – –
Joe Dawley 32 – 20.0 – –
David Lee 31 – 40.0 – –
Kyle Denney 26 – 4-0.0 – –
Jeremy Guthrie 25 – 6-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Sandy Martinez↔ BOS 33 – 1-0.0 – –
Cliff Bartosh 24 – 34-0.0 – –
Jake Robbins 28 – 2-0.1 – –
Jason Anderson 25 – 1-0.1 – –
Raul Gonzalez 30 – 7-0.1 – –
Jhonny Peralta 22 – 8-0.3 – –
Brandon Phillips 23 – 6-0.3 – –
Chad Durbin↔ ARI 26 arb 17-0.3 0.2 -0.7
Tim Laker 34 FA-elig 44-0.3 0.5 -1.0
Mark Little 31 – 11-0.4 – –
Jack Cressend 29 arb 11-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Jose Jimenez 30 FA-elig 31-0.6 1.0 -2.0
Jeriome Robertson 27 – 8-0.8 – –
Rick White 35 – 59-0.9 – –

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Ronnie Belliard3.1
Matt Miller1.2
Grady Sizemore1.0
Kazuhito Tadano0.5
Bob Howry0.4
Josh Phelps0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Milton Bradley4.1
Brian Anderson1.4
Billy Traber1.0
Shane Spencer0.8
Danys Baez0.8
Ellis Burks0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$34.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Matt Lawton III329.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
Bob Wickman3512.000$6.0M$2.8M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Omar Vizquel3715.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Ronnie Belliard296.000$1.1M$2.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Jimenez306.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jeff D'Amico288.000$750kFREE AGENT
Lou Merloni336.000$560kFREE AGENT
Tim Laker3412.000$450kFREE AGENT
Scott Elarton286.000$348k$850kFREE AGENT
Sandy Martinez339.000—FREE AGENT
Rick White3510.000—FREE AGENT
Ernie Young3410.000—FREE AGENT
Bob Howry306.000—$900kFREE AGENT
Mark Little316.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
CC Sabathia233.000$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Riske275.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jake Westbrook264.000$925kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Stewart283.000$575kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Blake305.000$352kFREE AGENT
John McDonald295.000$324kFREE AGENT
Jack Cressend294.000$322kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Escobar253.000$302kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Durbin265.000$223kFREE AGENT
Josh Phelps264.000$80kARB 3FREE AGENT
Lou Pote325.000—FREE AGENT
David Lee315.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Jeremy Guthrie250.000$625kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Davis242.000$327kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jody Gerut261.000$326kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Broussard272.000$324kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Coco Crisp242.000$319kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Bard262.000$317kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Hafner272.000$316kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Betancourt291.000$305kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Ludwick252.000$305kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Martinez252.000$304kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cliff Lee252.000$303kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Stanford271.000$303kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeriome Robertson272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raul Gonzalez30–—
Matt Miller321.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Robbins28–—
Cliff Bartosh240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips232.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Dawley322.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Anderson251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cabrera220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonny Peralta221.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Cruceta22–—
Grady Sizemore210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Denney26–—
Kazuhito Tadano24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.