TOR⇄CLE

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net +$6.4M net +1.8

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $17M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2005 odds 11% → 13% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John McDonaldSS·30y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$6.4M net -1.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2005 odds 90% → 88% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom MastnyP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#320 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.