LAD⇄CLE

LADLAD Dan Evans net +$5.6M net +0.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2004 odds 60% → 65% (+5.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trey Dyson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$5.6M net -0.9

received +$1.6M+$0.0M ± $8M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2004 odds 27% → 23% (-4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rick WhiteP·35y·R/R

+$1.4M+$0.3M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.