RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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GM: Mark Shapiro

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.57× league · TAB -1.5
-1.5TAB — talent above budget17th/30
-6.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-6.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
40%dead money %22nd/30
0.420win %25th/30
25.8roster fWAR22nd/30
-6surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$39Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFMilton Bradley 93GCoco Crisp 53GJody Gerut 14G
LFMatt Lawton III 62GCoco Crisp 39GJody Gerut 36G
RFJody Gerut 63GAlex Escobar 25GRyan Ludwick 25G
SSJhonny Peralta 72GOmar Vizquel 64GJohn McDonald 27G
2BBrandon Phillips 109GJohn McDonald 37GAngel Santos 28G
3BCasey Blake 140GJohn McDonald 23GBill Selby 10G
1BBen Broussard 114GTravis Hafner 42GCasey Blake 31G
STARTERSCC Sabathia 3.6WARJake Westbrook 1.1WARBilly Traber 1.0WARJason Davis 1.0WARJason Stanford 0.8WAR
CJosh Bard 87GTim Laker 50GVictor Martinez 40G
DHEllis Burks 51GTravis Hafner 42GMatt Lawton III 21G
BULLPEN★ Danys Baez 25svDavid Riske 17hJason Boyd 8hJack Cressend 5hJose Santiago 4hRafael Betancourt 4hCarl Sadler Jr. 3hTerry Mulholland 2h
CJosh Bard 87 · Tim Laker 50 · Victor Martinez 40
1BBen Broussard 114 · Travis Hafner 42 · Casey Blake 31
2BBrandon Phillips 109 · John McDonald 37 · Angel Santos 28
3BCasey Blake 140 · John McDonald 23 · Bill Selby 10
SSJhonny Peralta 72 · Omar Vizquel 64 · John McDonald 27
LFMatt Lawton III 62 · Coco Crisp 39 · Jody Gerut 36
CFMilton Bradley 93 · Coco Crisp 53 · Jody Gerut 14
RFJody Gerut 63 · Alex Escobar 25 · Ryan Ludwick 25
DHEllis Burks 51 · Travis Hafner 42 · Matt Lawton III 21
SPCC Sabathia 3.6 · Jake Westbrook 1.1 · Billy Traber 1.0 · Jason Davis 1.0 · Jason Stanford 0.8
BP★ Danys Baez 25 · David Riske 17 · Jason Boyd 8 · Jack Cressend 5 · Jose Santiago 4 · Rafael Betancourt 4 · Carl Sadler Jr. 3 · Terry Mulholland 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Milton Bradley 25 arb 1014.1 0.3 +7.0
CC Sabathia 22 pre-arb 313.6 1.1 +5.4
Jody Gerut 25 – 1273.2 – –
Casey Blake 29 arb 1522.0 0.3 +3.3
David Riske 26 arb 681.5 0.3 +2.3
Brian Anderson↔ KCR 31 FA-elig 271.4 1.2 +1.2
Ryan Ludwick↔ TEX 24 – 391.3 – –
Jake Westbrook 25 arb 341.1 0.3 +1.6
Billy Traber 23 pre-arb 331.0 0.3 +1.5
Omar Vizquel 36 FA-elig 641.0 5.5 -3.7
Jason Davis 23 pre-arb 281.0 0.3 +1.4
Jack Cressend 28 – 330.9 – –
Josh Bard 25 pre-arb 910.8 0.3 +1.2
Shane Spencer↔ TEX 31 arb 640.8 0.3 +1.1
Jason Stanford 26 – 130.8 – –
Danys Baez 25 pre-arb 730.8 5.1 -3.8
Alex Escobar 24 – 280.7 – –
Cliff Lee 24 pre-arb 90.7 0.3 +0.9
Coco Crisp 23 – 990.6 0.3 +0.8
Ellis Burks 38 FA-elig 550.6 7.2 -6.2
Ben Broussard 26 pre-arb 1160.5 0.3 +0.7
Chris Magruder 26 – 90.5 – –
Matt Lawton III 31 FA-elig 990.5 6.8 -5.9
Dan Miceli↔ COL 32 FA-elig 130.4 0.1 +0.6
Rafael Betancourt 28 – 330.4 – –
Jhonny Peralta 21 – 770.3 – –
Carl Sadler Jr. 26 pre-arb 180.2 0.3 +0.1
Tim Laker 33 FA-elig 520.2 0.4 -0.0
Travis Hafner 26 pre-arb 910.2 0.3 +0.0
Greg LaRocca 30 – 50.2 – –
Jason Bere 32 FA-elig 20.1 1.0 -0.7
Victor Martinez 24 – 490.1 – –
Nick Bierbrodt↔ TBR 25 pre-arb 50.1 0.1 +0.1
Jose Santiago 28 FA-elig 250.1 0.6 -0.5
Jason Boyd 30 – 440.1 – –
Jerrod Riggan 29 – 20.0 – –
Brian Tallet 25 – 50.0 – –
Chad Paronto 27 – 60.0 – –
Chad Durbin 25 – 30.0 – –
David Lee 30 – 8-0.0 – –
David Cortes 29 – 2-0.1 – –
Angel Santos 23 – 32-0.1 – –
Jason Phillips 29 – 3-0.1 – –
Aaron Myette 25 arb 2-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Ricardo Rodriguez 25 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Dave Elder 27 – 4-0.2 – –
Zach Sorensen 26 – 36-0.4 – –
Alex Herrera 26 – 10-0.4 – –
Bill Selby 33 FA-elig 27-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Ricky Gutierrez 33 FA-elig 16-0.6 3.9 -4.9
Karim Garcia↔ NYY 27 FA-elig 24-0.8 0.3 -1.7
Brandon Phillips 22 pre-arb 112-0.8 0.3 -1.7
Terry Mulholland 40 FA-elig 45-0.9 0.5 -2.2
John McDonald 28 arb 82-1.0 0.3 -2.1

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Jody Gerut3.2
Casey Blake2.0
Brian Anderson1.4
Ryan Ludwick1.3
Billy Traber1.0
Jack Cressend0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
Jim Thome7.3
Chuck Finley2.3
Bartolo Colon2.2
Ryan Drese1.4
Paul Shuey1.1
Ricardo Rincon0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$39.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Ellis Burks3816.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
Matt Lawton III318.000$6.8M$7.2MFREE AGENT
Omar Vizquel3614.000$5.5M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Ricky Gutierrez3310.000$3.9MFREE AGENT
Brian Anderson3110.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jason Bere3210.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jose Santiago286.000$600kFREE AGENT
Terry Mulholland4017.000$500kFREE AGENT
Tim Laker3311.000$400k$450kFREE AGENT
Bill Selby337.000$325kFREE AGENT
Karim Garcia278.000$284kFREE AGENT
Dan Miceli3210.000$80kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Casey Blake294.000$330kARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Spencer315.000$323kFREE AGENT
John McDonald284.000$314kARB 3FREE AGENT
Milton Bradley253.000$314kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Riske264.000$314kARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Myette254.000$308kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Westbrook253.000$306kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Lee304.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Boyd304.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Cressend283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Phillips294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Cortes294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Durbin254.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerrod Riggan293.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Danys Baez252.000$5.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
CC Sabathia222.000$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Sadler Jr.261.000$303kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Broussard261.000$303kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricardo Rodriguez251.000$302kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Hafner261.000$302kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Bard251.000$302kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Davis231.000$301kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cliff Lee241.000$301kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips221.000$301kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Traber230.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Coco Crisp231.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Bierbrodt252.000$83kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Escobar242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Elder27–—
Chris Magruder262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg LaRocca30–—
Victor Martinez241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Sorensen26–—
Chad Paronto272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Santos23–—
Alex Herrera26–—
Ryan Ludwick241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Stanford260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Tallet251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jody Gerut250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonny Peralta210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Betancourt280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.