CLE⇄KCR

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Luis CottoSS·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#224 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mike FyhrieP·33y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#314 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.