CLE⇄TEX

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$8.8M net +1.2

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $31M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.2 ± 4 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2003 odds 2% → 3% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan LudwickOF·24y·R/L

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.2± 4 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

Composite #81.0 pedigree (Baseball America #81 (2001)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX John Hart net −$8.8M net -1.2

received +$19.2M+$19.2M ± $28M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 4.4 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2003 odds 8% → 5% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shane SpencerOF·31y·R/R

+$15.0M+$15.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ricardo RodríguezP·25y·L/R

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

Composite #69.0 pedigree (Baseball America #69 (2002)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.