CIN⇄MIL

CINCIN Nick Krall net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2023 odds 5% → 5% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Matt Arnold net −$0.8M net -0.1

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $19M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2023 odds 17% → 17% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bennett SousaP·28y·L/L

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#288 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.