CIN⇄CLE

CINCIN Nick Krall net +$4.8M net +1.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2023 odds 3% → 5% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Will BensonOF·25y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

#14 overall draft pick → 0.55/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net −$4.8M net -1.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2023 odds 8% → 5% (-2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin BoydRF·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#73 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.