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February 12, 2017

ATL⇄CIN

ATL won this trade +$4.0M surplus ATL won this trade +0.9 WAR
ATLATL John Hart net +$4.0M net +0.9
received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $24M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 2.5 ± 3 expected · 0.9 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2017 odds 1% → 1% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Brandon Phillips2B·36y·R/R
+$5.1M+$5.1M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.9
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.7/yr over 2.7 seasons
Talent
1.25/yr blended
Horizon
1.0 control yr
Kevin Franklin1B·22y·R/R
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#67 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
CINCIN net −$4.0M net -0.9
received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2017 odds 4% → 4% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Andrew McKirahanP·27y·R/L
+$1.2M+$1.2M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#639 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.1/yr over 0.6 season
Talent
0.19/yr blended
Horizon
4.0 control yrs
Carlos Portuondo
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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