KCR⇄CIN

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$51.2M net +7.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$51.2M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 7.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2018 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brad KellerP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$51.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 7.9

Prior

#240 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN net −$51.2M net -7.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2018 odds 5% → 3% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.