RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Walt Jocketty

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.82× league · TAB +3.7
+3.7TAB — talent above budget13th/30
-0.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-4.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
43%dead money %21st/30
0.488win %17th/30
35.6roster fWAR12th/30
+9surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/30
$79Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFDrew Stubbs 157GChris Heisey 18GDave Sappelt 4G
LFChris Heisey 88GFred Lewis 45GDave Sappelt 31G
RFJay Bruce 155GChris Heisey 10GFred Lewis 4G
SSPaul Janish 103GEdgar Renteria 86GZack Cozart 11G
2BBrandon Phillips 148GMiguel Cairo 13GPaul Janish 5G
3BScott Rolen 63GMiguel Cairo 58GTodd Frazier 27G
1BJoey Votto 160GMiguel Cairo 5GYonder Alonso 3G
STARTERSJohnny Cueto 2.6WARHomer Bailey 1.7WARDontrelle Willis 1.7WARMike Leake 1.6WARTravis Wood 0.9WAR
CRyan Hanigan 89GRamon Hernandez 82GDevin Mesoraco 16G
DHJonny Gomes 8GFred Lewis 1G
BULLPEN★ Francisco Cordero 37svBill Bray 20hNick Masset 14hLogan Ondrusek 14hAroldis Chapman 13hSam LeCure 5hJose Arredondo 4hCarlos Fisher 0h
CRyan Hanigan 89 · Ramon Hernandez 82 · Devin Mesoraco 16
1BJoey Votto 160 · Miguel Cairo 5 · Yonder Alonso 3
2BBrandon Phillips 148 · Miguel Cairo 13 · Paul Janish 5
3BScott Rolen 63 · Miguel Cairo 58 · Todd Frazier 27
SSPaul Janish 103 · Edgar Renteria 86 · Zack Cozart 11
LFChris Heisey 88 · Fred Lewis 45 · Dave Sappelt 31
CFDrew Stubbs 157 · Chris Heisey 18 · Dave Sappelt 4
RFJay Bruce 155 · Chris Heisey 10 · Fred Lewis 4
DHJonny Gomes 8 · Fred Lewis 1
SPJohnny Cueto 2.6 · Homer Bailey 1.7 · Dontrelle Willis 1.7 · Mike Leake 1.6 · Travis Wood 0.9
BP★ Francisco Cordero 37 · Bill Bray 20 · Nick Masset 14 · Logan Ondrusek 14 · Aroldis Chapman 13 · Sam LeCure 5 · Jose Arredondo 4 · Carlos Fisher 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joey Votto 27 arb 1616.4 7.4 +8.2
Brandon Phillips 30 FA-elig 1505.4 11.4 +1.8
Ryan Hanigan 30 arb 913.7 0.6 +8.5
Jay Bruce 24 arb 1572.9 2.8 +4.4
Johnny Cueto 25 arb 242.6 3.4 +3.0
Drew Stubbs 26 pre-arb 1582.2 0.5 +4.9
Homer Bailey 25 arb 231.7 0.4 +3.8
Miguel Cairo 37 FA-elig 1021.7 1.0 +3.1
Dontrelle Willis 29 FA-elig 161.7 0.4 +3.6
Mike Leake 23 pre-arb 381.6 0.4 +3.4
Chris Heisey 26 pre-arb 1201.5 0.4 +3.3
Scott Rolen 36 FA-elig 651.1 8.2 -5.5
Ramon Hernandez 35 FA-elig 910.9 2.9 -0.7
Travis Wood 24 pre-arb 260.9 0.4 +1.8
Jonny Gomes↔ WSN 30 FA-elig 770.9 1.1 +1.0
Todd Frazier 25 – 410.7 0.4 +1.3
Zack Cozart 25 – 110.7 0.4 +1.3
Edgar Renteria 34 FA-elig 960.7 2.1 -0.5
Bill Bray 28 arb 790.6 0.6 +0.8
Yonder Alonso 24 pre-arb 470.5 0.6 +0.6
Aroldis Chapman 23 pre-arb 540.5 3.8 -2.7
Sam LeCure 27 pre-arb 430.4 0.4 +0.7
Nick Masset 29 arb 750.4 1.7 -0.8
Dave Sappelt 24 – 380.3 0.1 +0.6
Chris Valaika 25 pre-arb 140.3 0.4 +0.2
Fred Lewis 30 arb 810.2 0.9 -0.5
Juan Francisco 24 pre-arb 310.1 0.4 -0.2
Francisco Cordero 36 FA-elig 680.1 12.1 -12.0
Jeremy Horst 25 – 120.0 – –
Jose Arredondo 27 arb 53-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Jared Burton 30 arb 6-0.1 0.8 -0.9
Carlos Fisher 28 pre-arb 17-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Daryl Thompson 25 – 1-0.1 – –
Jeremy Hermida↔ SDP 27 – 10-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Logan Ondrusek 26 pre-arb 66-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Jordan Smith 25 pre-arb 17-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Chad Reineke 29 – 2-0.3 – –
Devin Mesoraco 23 – 18-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Edinson Volquez 27 FA-elig 21-0.4 1.6 -2.7
Matt Maloney 27 pre-arb 8-0.5 0.4 -1.5
Paul Janish 28 arb 114-0.6 0.4 -1.9
Bronson Arroyo 34 FA-elig 36-1.9 7.7 -12.2

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Dontrelle Willis1.7
Todd Frazier0.7
Zack Cozart0.7
Edgar Renteria0.7
Dave Sappelt0.3
Fred Lewis0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Laynce Nix1.4
Arthur Rhodes0.8
Orlando Cabrera0.7
Corky Miller0.7
Drew Sutton0.2
Daniel Herrera0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$78.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Francisco Cordero3611.046$12.1MFREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips306.022$11.4M$12.0M$10.0M$11.0M$12.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Rolen3614.060$8.2M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo348.150$7.7M$12.0M$16.4MFREE AGENT$535k
Ramon Hernandez3511.099$2.9MFREE AGENT
Edgar Renteria3414.143$2.1MFREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo3713.110$1.0M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Dontrelle Willis296.167$414kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Joey Votto273.027$7.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto253.000$3.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Masset293.146$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edinson Volquez273.120$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes305.097$1.1MFREE AGENT
Fred Lewis303.129$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Burton303.014$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Bray285.018$645kFREE AGENT
Jeremy Hermida275.016$103kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Aroldis Chapman230.034$3.8MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Bruce242.125$2.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonder Alonso240.051$600kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Hanigan302.077$550kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Arredondo271.168$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Stubbs261.047$450kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Homer Bailey252.017$441kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Janish282.064$438kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Leake231.000$425kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Wood240.086$422kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heisey260.157$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Ondrusek260.144$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Smith251.146$416kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Maloney271.055$415kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Valaika250.089$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Francisco240.080$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Frazier250.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Cozart250.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Fisher281.138$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Mesoraco230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam LeCure270.072$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Sappelt240.086$124kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daryl Thompson25–—
Chad Reineke29–—
Jeremy Horst250.160—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.