CIN⇄CHW

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$20.8M net +4.9

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $43M expected surplus · +$20.8M realized received 3.6 ± 5 expected · 4.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2003 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

D'Angelo Jimenez2B·25y·B/R

+$11.0M+$11.0M± $43M exp surplusrealized +$20.8M 3.6± 5 exp WARrealized 4.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.90/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$20.8M net -4.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2003 odds 78% → 70% (-8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott DunnP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#308 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.