RRosternomics

White Sox CHW

GM: Ron Schueler

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.25× league · TAB -4.1
-4.1TAB — talent above budget15th/28
-7.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/28
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/28
-6.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/28
22%dead money %15th/28
0.472win %18th/28
29.2roster fWAR13th/28
-15surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/28
$42Mpayroll $M6th/28

Roster

CFLance Johnson 140GDave Martinez 5GMike Cameron 3G
LFTim Raines Sr. 107GDave Martinez 30GLyle Mouton 29G
RFDave Martinez 32GLyle Mouton 30GMike Cameron 26G
SSOzzie Guillen 120GCraig Grebeck 31GNorberto Martin 7G
2BRay Durham 122GNorberto Martin 17GCraig Grebeck 8G
3BRobin Ventura 121GCraig Grebeck 18GChris Snopek 17G
1BFrank Thomas 90GDave Martinez 47GRobin Ventura 18G
STARTERSAlex Fernandez 4.5WARWilson Alvarez 1.5WARBrian Keyser 1.0WARDave Righetti 0.6WARMike Sirotka 0.6WAR
CRon Karkovice 113GMichael LaValliere 46GBarry Lyons 16G
DHFrank Thomas 53GJohn Kruk 42GTim Raines Sr. 20G
BULLPEN Roberto Hernandez 32svJeff Shaw 0hKirk McCaskill 0hScott Radinsky 0hTim Fortugno 0hMatt Karchner 0hLarry Thomas 0hBill Simas 0h
CRon Karkovice 113 · Michael LaValliere 46 · Barry Lyons 16
1BFrank Thomas 90 · Dave Martinez 47 · Robin Ventura 18
2BRay Durham 122 · Norberto Martin 17 · Craig Grebeck 8
3BRobin Ventura 121 · Craig Grebeck 18 · Chris Snopek 17
SSOzzie Guillen 120 · Craig Grebeck 31 · Norberto Martin 7
LFTim Raines Sr. 107 · Dave Martinez 30 · Lyle Mouton 29
CFLance Johnson 140 · Dave Martinez 5 · Mike Cameron 3
RFDave Martinez 32 · Lyle Mouton 30 · Mike Cameron 26
DHFrank Thomas 53 · John Kruk 42 · Tim Raines Sr. 20
SPAlex Fernandez 4.5 · Wilson Alvarez 1.5 · Brian Keyser 1.0 · Dave Righetti 0.6 · Mike Sirotka 0.6
BP Roberto Hernandez 32 · Jeff Shaw 0 · Kirk McCaskill 0 · Scott Radinsky 0 · Tim Fortugno 0 · Matt Karchner 0 · Larry Thomas 0 · Bill Simas 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1995 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Frank Thomas 27 arb 1455.4 7.2 -2.0
Robin Ventura 27 FA-elig 1354.8 5.1 -0.5
Alex Fernandez 25 arb 304.5 3.2 +1.1
Lance Johnson 31 FA-elig 1423.1 2.7 +0.3
Mike Devereaux↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 921.8 1.0 +0.7
Dave Martinez 30 FA-elig 1191.8 0.7 +1.0
Jim Abbott↔ ANA 27 FA-elig 171.6 1.6 -0.0
Wilson Alvarez 25 FA-elig 291.5 2.2 -0.8
Ron Karkovice 31 FA-elig 1131.3 1.8 -0.5
Lyle Mouton 26 pre-arb 581.3 0.1 +1.1
Craig Grebeck 30 arb 531.2 0.7 +0.5
Tim Raines Sr. 35 FA-elig 1331.1 3.7 -2.6
Roberto Hernandez 30 arb 601.0 1.2 -0.2
Brian Keyser 28 pre-arb 231.0 0.1 +0.8
Michael LaValliere 34 FA-elig 460.6 0.8 -0.1
Dave Righetti 36 FA-elig 100.6 0.3 +0.3
Matt Karchner 28 310.6
Chris Snopek 24 220.6
Mike Sirotka 24 60.6
Warren Newson↔ SEA 30 arb 510.5 0.1 +0.3
John Kruk 34 FA-elig 450.4 1.0 -0.6
Barry Lyons 35 270.3
Larry Thomas 25 pre-arb 170.2 0.1 +0.0
Andrew Lorraine 22 50.1
Bill Simas 23 pre-arb 140.1 0.1 -0.0
Luis Andujar 22 50.0
Doug Brady 25 120.0
Mike Cameron 22 pre-arb 28-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Kirk McCaskill 34 FA-elig 55-0.0 0.9 -0.9
Jeff Shaw↔ WSN 28 arb 9-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Rodney Bolton 26 8-0.1
Jose DeLeon↔ WSN 34 FA-elig 38-0.1 0.6 -0.7
Jason Bere 24 pre-arb 27-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Isidro Marquez 30 7-0.2
Scott Ruffcorn 25 4-0.2
Chris Sabo↔ STL 33 FA-elig 20-0.2 0.4 -0.6
Chris Tremie 25 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.1 -0.4
Atlee Hammaker 37 13-0.4
Tim Fortugno 33 arb 37-0.4 0.1 -0.5
Norberto Martin 28 pre-arb 72-0.4 0.2 -0.5
Mike Bertotti 25 pre-arb 4-0.5 0.1 -0.6
James Baldwin 23 pre-arb 6-0.5 0.1 -0.6
Scott Radinsky 27 arb 46-0.6 1.1 -1.7
Rob Dibble↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 15-0.6 0.2 -0.8
Ozzie Guillen 31 FA-elig 122-0.9 3.5 -4.4
Ray Durham 23 pre-arb 125-1.4 0.1 -1.5

Key additions (new vs 1994)

PlayerfWAR
Mike Devereaux1.8
Dave Martinez1.8
Jim Abbott1.6
Lyle Mouton1.3
Brian Keyser1.0
Dave Righetti0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 1994)

Player1994 fWAR
Jack McDowell4.9
Julio Franco3.1
Darrin Jackson2.7
Paul Assenmacher0.7
Joey Cora0.5
Joe Hall0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

1995 payroll
$41.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 1995, 1995–2001. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Robin Ventura276.000$5.1M$6.0M$6.0M$6.1MFREE AGENT
Tim Raines Sr.3516.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Ozzie Guillen3110.000$3.5M$4.0M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Lance Johnson318.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Wilson Alvarez256.000$2.2M$2.8M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Ron Karkovice319.000$1.8M$2.2M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jim Abbott276.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Mike Devereaux328.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
John Kruk349.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Kirk McCaskill3410.000$940k$800kFREE AGENT
Michael LaValliere3411.000$750kFREE AGENT
Dave Martinez309.000$650k$930k$950kFREE AGENT
Jose DeLeon3412.000$595kFREE AGENT
Chris Sabo337.000$440kFREE AGENT
Dave Righetti3616.000$300kFREE AGENT
Rob Dibble317.000$200kFREE AGENT
Atlee Hammaker3714.000FREE AGENT
Barry Lyons359.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Frank Thomas275.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
Alex Fernandez255.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez304.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Radinsky275.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Craig Grebeck305.000$670kFREE AGENT
Tim Fortugno333.000$130kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Warren Newson304.000$121kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Shaw285.000$50kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Jason Bere242.000$205kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Norberto Martin282.000$165kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Baldwin230.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray Durham230.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Keyser280.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Bertotti250.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Cameron220.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lyle Mouton260.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Larry Thomas250.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Simas230.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tremie250.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Andujar220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rodney Bolton262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Brady25
Matt Karchner280.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Lorraine221.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isidro Marquez30
Scott Ruffcorn252.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Sirotka240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Snopek240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = White Sox 1995; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3