ATL⇄CHW

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$3.2M net +0.5

received +$4.0M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1995 odds 76% → 79% (+2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike DevereauxOF·32y·R/R

+$4.3M+$0.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.11/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$3.2M net -0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1995 odds 13% → 12% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andre KingOF·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#66 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.