CHW⇄ANA

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$3.2M net +0.3

received +$22.4M+$22.4M ± $62M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 8.1 ± 8 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1995 odds 18% → 12% (-5.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

McKay ChristensenOF·19y·L/L

+$20.3M+$20.3M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 5.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#6 overall draft pick → 0.95/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.95/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

John SnyderP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

#356 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Bill SimasP·23y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

#160 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andrew LorraineP·22y·L/L

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

Composite #71.0 pedigree (Baseball America #71 (1995)) → 0.46/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net −$3.2M net -0.3

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $26M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 3.5 ± 3 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1995 odds 51% → 62% (+10.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim AbbottP·27y·L/L

+$14.0M+$14.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 3.1± 3 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.45/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

2.07/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Tim FortugnoP·33y·L/L

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.48 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.