MIA⇄CHC

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$80.0M net +10.6

received +$5.6M+$4.0M ± $32M expected surplus · +$204.8M realized received 3.8 ± 4 expected · 21.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2002 odds 21% → 9% (-11.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Julián TavárezP·29y·L/R

+$1.8M−$0.1M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.82/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Ryan JorgensenC·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#193 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dontrelle WillisP·20y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$207.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 20.7

Prior

#223 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jose Cueto

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Andy MacPhail net −$80.0M net -10.6

received +$16.0M+$16.0M ± $33M expected surplus · +$124.8M realized received 3.7 ± 4 expected · 10.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2002 odds 7% → 17% (+9.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt ClementP·27y·R/R

+$21.0M+$21.0M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$126.4M 3.2± 4 exp WARrealized 10.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.07/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Antonio AlfonsecaP·30y·R/R

−$5.4M−$5.4M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.