BOS⇄ANA

BOSBOS Dave Dombrowski net +$1.6M net +0.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2015 odds 6% → 6% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh Rutledge2B/SS·26y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net −$1.6M net -0.4

received +$30.4M+$30.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 2.5 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2015 odds 6% → 6% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shane VictorinoOF·34y·R/R

+$30.3M+$30.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 2.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

2.52/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.