BOS⇄TEX

BOSBOS Dave Dombrowski net +$2.4M net +1.3

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $29M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.5 ± 4 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2015 odds 6% → 6% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Robbie RossP·26y·L/L

+$4.9M+$4.9M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$2.4M net -1.3

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2015 odds 12% → 12% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anthony RanaudoP·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#39 overall draft pick → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.5/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.38/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.