COL⇄BAL

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$6.4M net +1.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $31M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2008 odds 3% → 4% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike McCoyOF·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#1032 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net −$6.4M net -1.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2008 odds 2% → 1% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan CastroSS·36y·R/R

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

-0.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.