RRosternomics
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Braves ATL

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GM: John Hart

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.91× league · TAB -1.0
-1.0TAB — talent above budget17th/30
-1.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-4.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
43%dead money %21st/30
0.488win %16th/30
32.1roster fWAR17th/30
-10surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$103Mpayroll $M16th/30

Roster

CFB.J. Upton 139GEmilio Bonifácio 65G
LFJustin Upton 150GRyan Doumit 9GEmilio Bonifácio 4G
RFJason Heyward 149GRyan Doumit 9GEmilio Bonifácio 6G
SSAndrelton Simmons 146GRamiro Pena 15GPhil Gosselin 8G
2BTommy La Stella 88GRamiro Pena 38GEmilio Bonifácio 31G
3BChris Johnson 150GRamiro Pena 17GPhil Gosselin 9G
1BFreddie Freeman 162GJoey Terdoslavich 2GChris Johnson 1G
STARTERSJulio Teheran 3.3WARErvin Santana 3.1WARAlex Wood 2.7WARAaron Harang 2.5WARGavin Floyd 0.6WAR
CEvan Gattis 93GGerald Laird 48GChristian Bethancourt 31G
DHRyan Doumit 5GEvan Gattis 3GEmilio Bonifácio 1G
BULLPEN★ Craig Kimbrel 47svJordan Walden 20hDavid Carpenter 19hAnthony Varvaro 13hShae Simmons 9hLuis Avilán 8hJames Russell 6hJuan Jaime 0h
CEvan Gattis 93 · Gerald Laird 48 · Christian Bethancourt 31
1BFreddie Freeman 162 · Joey Terdoslavich 2 · Chris Johnson 1
2BTommy La Stella 88 · Ramiro Pena 38 · Emilio Bonifácio 31
3BChris Johnson 150 · Ramiro Pena 17 · Phil Gosselin 9
SSAndrelton Simmons 146 · Ramiro Pena 15 · Phil Gosselin 8
LFJustin Upton 150 · Ryan Doumit 9 · Emilio Bonifácio 4
CFB.J. Upton 139 · Emilio Bonifácio 65
RFJason Heyward 149 · Ryan Doumit 9 · Emilio Bonifácio 6
DHRyan Doumit 5 · Evan Gattis 3 · Emilio Bonifácio 1
SPJulio Teheran 3.3 · Ervin Santana 3.1 · Alex Wood 2.7 · Aaron Harang 2.5 · Gavin Floyd 0.6
BP★ Craig Kimbrel 47 · Jordan Walden 20 · David Carpenter 19 · Anthony Varvaro 13 · Shae Simmons 9 · Luis Avilán 8 · James Russell 6 · Juan Jaime 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jason Heyward 24 arb 1494.7 4.5 +9.2
Freddie Freeman 24 arb 1624.5 5.1 +7.9
Justin Upton 26 FA-elig 1543.7 14.2 -3.3
Julio Teheran 23 arb 333.3 0.8 +8.8
Ervin Santana 31 FA-elig 313.1 14.1 -5.1
Alex Wood 23 pre-arb 352.7 0.5 +7.3
Evan Gattis 27 pre-arb 1082.6 0.5 +7.2
Aaron Harang 36 FA-elig 332.5 1.0 +6.2
Craig Kimbrel 26 arb 632.4 7.0 +0.1
Andrelton Simmons 24 pre-arb 1461.7 1.0 +3.9
David Carpenter 28 arb 650.9 0.5 +2.0
Jordan Walden 26 arb 580.8 1.5 +0.9
Mike Minor 26 arb 250.6 3.9 -2.1
Gavin Floyd 31 FA-elig 90.6 4.0 -2.3
James Russell↔ CHC 28 arb 220.4 0.6 +0.6
Chris Johnson 29 arb 1530.4 4.8 -3.6
Anthony Varvaro 29 arb 610.4 0.5 +0.6
Ramiro Pena 28 arb 810.3 0.7 +0.3
Phil Gosselin 25 – 460.3 – –
Chasen Shreve 23 – 150.3 0.5 +0.3
Ian Thomas 27 pre-arb 160.2 0.2 +0.5
Shae Simmons 23 – 260.2 0.3 +0.2
Tommy La Stella 25 – 930.2 0.3 +0.2
Emilio Bonifácio↔ CHC 29 FA-elig 410.1 0.9 -0.6
Joey Terdoslavich 25 pre-arb 90.0 0.5 -0.4
Juan Jaime 26 pre-arb 160.0 0.5 -0.4
Pedro Beato 27 pre-arb 30.0 0.3 -0.3
B.J. Upton 29 FA-elig 1410.0 13.4 -13.4
Ryan Buchter 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Gus Schlosser 25 – 15-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jose Constanza 30 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.5 -0.9
David Hale 26 pre-arb 45-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Tyler Pastornicky 24 pre-arb 28-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Jordan Schafer↔ MIN 27 arb 63-0.3 0.7 -1.5
Luis Avilán 24 pre-arb 62-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Ryan Doumit 33 FA-elig 100-0.7 3.5 -5.4
Christian Bethancourt 22 pre-arb 31-0.7 0.5 -2.4
Dan Uggla↔ SFG 34 FA-elig 48-0.7 12.2 -14.2
Gerald Laird 34 FA-elig 53-1.6 1.5 -6.0

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Ervin Santana3.1
Aaron Harang2.5
Gavin Floyd0.6
James Russell0.4
Chasen Shreve0.3
Ian Thomas0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Brian McCann3.3
Tim Hudson2.0
Paul Maholm0.6
Freddy Garcia0.4
Juan Francisco0.3
Scott Downs0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$103.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Justin Upton266.060$14.2MFREE AGENT
Ervin Santana318.104$14.1MFREE AGENT
B.J. Upton297.126$13.4MFREE AGENT
Dan Uggla348.000$12.2MFREE AGENT
Gavin Floyd3110.045$4.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Doumit338.120$3.5MFREE AGENT
Gerald Laird349.007$1.5MFREE AGENT
Aaron Harang3611.061$1.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Craig Kimbrel263.066$7.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddie Freeman243.033$5.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Johnson293.144$4.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Heyward244.000$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Walden263.043$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio295.066$932kFREE AGENT
Ramiro Pena283.089$700kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Schafer273.121$660kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Russell284.000$592kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Mike Minor262.138$3.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrelton Simmons241.125$1.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Teheran231.062$800kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Carpenter280.113$532kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Gattis271.000$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Avilán241.091$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Varvaro291.121$515kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Wood230.123$506kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hale260.025$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Pastornicky241.134$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bethancourt220.021$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Constanza301.039$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Jaime260.056$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chasen Shreve230.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Terdoslavich251.050$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gus Schlosser25–$500k
Tommy La Stella250.000$339kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shae Simmons230.000$331kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Beato271.134$302kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Thomas270.123$164kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Buchter270.000$30kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Gosselin251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.