RRosternomics
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Braves ATL

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GM: Frank Wren

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.9× league · TAB +10.7
+10.7TAB — talent above budget5th/30
+15.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-2.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
30%dead money %10th/30
0.593win %3rd/30
43.6roster fWAR4th/30
+24surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$93Mpayroll $M14th/30

2013: made playoffs · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFB.J. Upton 118GJordan Schafer 30GJason Heyward 20G
LFJustin Upton 108GEvan Gattis 48GJordan Schafer 15G
RFJason Heyward 86GJustin Upton 54GJordan Schafer 29G
SSAndrelton Simmons 156GElliot Johnson 10GRamiro Pena 7G
2BDan Uggla 133GElliot Johnson 74GRamiro Pena 10G
3BChris Johnson 125GPaul Janish 36GRamiro Pena 32G
1BFreddie Freeman 147GChris Johnson 12GJoey Terdoslavich 6G
STARTERSMike Minor 3.6WARJulio Teheran 3.0WARKris Medlen 2.8WARTim Hudson 2.0WARAlex Wood 1.3WAR
CBrian McCann 92GEvan Gattis 42GGerald Laird 40G
DHBrian McCann 3GJuan Francisco 2GEvan Gattis 2G
BULLPEN★ Craig Kimbrel 50svLuis Avilán 27hScott Downs 26hJordan Walden 14hDavid Carpenter 12hLuis Ayala 10hAnthony Varvaro 6hCory Gearrin 1h
CBrian McCann 92 · Evan Gattis 42 · Gerald Laird 40
1BFreddie Freeman 147 · Chris Johnson 12 · Joey Terdoslavich 6
2BDan Uggla 133 · Elliot Johnson 74 · Ramiro Pena 10
3BChris Johnson 125 · Paul Janish 36 · Ramiro Pena 32
SSAndrelton Simmons 156 · Elliot Johnson 10 · Ramiro Pena 7
LFJustin Upton 108 · Evan Gattis 48 · Jordan Schafer 15
CFB.J. Upton 118 · Jordan Schafer 30 · Jason Heyward 20
RFJason Heyward 86 · Justin Upton 54 · Jordan Schafer 29
DHBrian McCann 3 · Juan Francisco 2 · Evan Gattis 2
SPMike Minor 3.6 · Julio Teheran 3.0 · Kris Medlen 2.8 · Tim Hudson 2.0 · Alex Wood 1.3
BP★ Craig Kimbrel 50 · Luis Avilán 27 · Scott Downs 26 · Jordan Walden 14 · David Carpenter 12 · Luis Ayala 10 · Anthony Varvaro 6 · Cory Gearrin 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Freddie Freeman 23 arb 1475.0 0.6 +12.9
Mike Minor 25 arb 323.6 0.5 +9.2
Andrelton Simmons 23 pre-arb 1573.5 0.5 +9.0
Justin Upton 25 FA-elig 1493.5 9.8 -0.4
Brian McCann 29 FA-elig 1023.3 12.0 -3.1
Chris Johnson 28 arb 1423.1 2.9 +5.5
Jason Heyward 23 arb 1043.1 3.6 +4.6
Julio Teheran 22 pre-arb 303.0 0.5 +7.7
Kris Medlen 27 arb 322.8 2.6 +4.9
Evan Gattis 26 pre-arb 1052.2 0.5 +5.4
Craig Kimbrel 25 arb 682.2 0.7 +5.2
Tim Hudson 37 FA-elig 212.0 9.0 -3.7
Alex Wood 22 – 311.3 0.3 +3.3
Jordan Schafer 26 arb 940.9 0.5 +2.0
David Carpenter 27 pre-arb 560.9 0.5 +1.9
Jordan Walden 25 arb 500.8 0.5 +1.7
Ramiro Pena 27 arb 500.8 0.6 +1.6
Paul Maholm 31 FA-elig 260.6 6.5 -5.0
Dan Uggla 33 FA-elig 1360.5 13.0 -11.6
David Hale 25 – 20.5 0.1 +1.3
Luis Avilán 23 pre-arb 750.5 0.5 +0.8
Freddy Garcia↔ BAL 36 FA-elig 60.4 0.0 +0.9
Juan Francisco↔ MIL 26 arb 350.3 0.1 +0.6
Anthony Varvaro 28 arb 620.2 0.5 +0.1
Scott Downs↔ ANA 37 FA-elig 250.2 1.8 -1.2
Brandon Beachy 26 arb 50.2 0.5 -0.0
Elliot Johnson↔ KCR 29 arb 320.2 0.2 +0.3
Luis Ayala↔ BAL 35 FA-elig 370.1 0.9 -0.6
Tyler Pastornicky 23 pre-arb 200.1 0.5 -0.3
Blake DeWitt 27 – 40.0 – –
Phil Gosselin 24 – 40.0 – –
Cristhian Martinez 31 arb 20.0 0.7 -0.7
Gerald Laird 33 FA-elig 47-0.0 1.5 -1.6
Christian Bethancourt 21 – 1-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Eric O'Flaherty 28 FA-elig 19-0.1 4.3 -4.5
Reed Johnson 36 FA-elig 74-0.1 1.6 -1.8
Todd Cunningham 24 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Jose Constanza 29 pre-arb 21-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Kameron Loe↔ CHC 31 FA-elig 9-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Joey Terdoslavich 24 pre-arb 55-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Cory Gearrin 27 pre-arb 37-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Paul Janish 30 arb 52-0.3 0.7 -1.6
Cory Rasmus↔ ANA 25 – 3-0.3 0.0 -0.9
B.J. Upton 28 FA-elig 126-0.9 12.4 -15.0

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Justin Upton3.5
Chris Johnson3.1
Evan Gattis2.2
Alex Wood1.3
Jordan Schafer0.9
David Carpenter0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Michael Bourn5.3
Martín Prado4.5
David Ross2.7
Chipper Jones Jr.2.6
Randall Delgado0.7
Ben Sheets0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$93.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Dan Uggla337.000$13.0M$12.2MFREE AGENT
B.J. Upton286.126$12.4M$13.4MFREE AGENT
Brian McCann297.117$12.0MFREE AGENT$2.0M
Tim Hudson3713.119$9.0MFREE AGENT
Paul Maholm317.037$6.5MFREE AGENT
Scott Downs3710.121$1.8MFREE AGENT
Reed Johnson369.145$1.6MFREE AGENT
Gerald Laird338.007$1.5M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Luis Ayala359.121$949kFREE AGENT
Kameron Loe319.000$473kFREE AGENT
Freddy Garcia3612.060$48kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Justin Upton255.060$9.8MFREE AGENT
Eric O'Flaherty285.062$4.3MFREE AGENT
Jason Heyward233.000$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kris Medlen273.137$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Janish303.145$725kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elliot Johnson293.068$150kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake DeWitt274.048—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Chris Johnson282.144$2.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristhian Martinez312.158$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel252.066$655kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddie Freeman232.033$560kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramiro Pena272.089$550kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Walden252.043$542kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Schafer262.121$512kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Beachy262.014$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Minor251.138$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Gearrin270.119$491kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrelton Simmons230.125$491kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Avilán230.091$491kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Varvaro280.121$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Teheran220.062$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Gattis260.000$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Carpenter270.110$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Pastornicky231.134$490kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Wood220.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Terdoslavich241.050$233kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Cunningham240.080$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Constanza291.039$158kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Francisco261.156$140kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hale250.000$70kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bethancourt210.000$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Rasmus251.155$16kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Gosselin240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.