WSN⇄COL

WSNWSN Paul Toboni net +$0.0M net +0.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $46M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 6 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Carson PalmquistP·25y·L/L

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $46M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 6 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#88 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Josh Byrnes net +$0.0M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (Baseball America rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →