RRosternomics
BB

Bud Black

Born Jun 30, 1957 · San Mateo, CA · age 69

General manager for the Padres (2009–2009).

1 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record75–87
Win %0.463
+0.1GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.873rd/195 execs
7.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)48th/195 execs
-9.5Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)188th/195 execs
53%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)185th/195 execs
$33MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track37th/195 execs
$6MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)94th/195 execs
$26MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade8th/195 execs
$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees170th/195 execs
+1.0TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total75th/195 execs
+2.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)64th/195 execs
0.65Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)138th/195 execs
+23Roster surplus $M26th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Padres GM 2009–2009 1 +2.1 +2.11 +1.0 +9.7 -0.7 +10.1 +12.1 +0.0 0.65 0.463 +23
Career total (1985+ data) 1 +2.1 +1.0 +9.7 -0.7 +10.1 +12.1 +0.0 0.65 0.463 +23

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)-0.7
Trade+10.1
Free agency+12.1
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 0% draft · 50% FA · 50% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Bud Black's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 23 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Chris Denorfia OF SDP Free agency 2009 5 +7.4 +1.5 4.2
Luke Gregerson P SDP Trade 2009 5 +5.7 +1.1
Clayton Richard P SDP Trade 2009 7 +5.4 +0.8 0.1
Tony Gwynn OF SDP Trade 2009 2 +4.5 +2.2 1.5
Kevin Correia P SDP Trade 2009 2 +3.1 +1.5 1.8
David Eckstein SS SDP Free agency 2009 2 +2.2 +1.1 0.5
Henry Blanco C SDP Free agency 2009 1 +1.6 +1.6 1.0
Chad Gaudin P SDP Trade 2009 1 +1.5 +1.5 1.0
Ryan Webb P SDP Trade 2009 1 +0.6 +0.6
Edward Mujica P SDP Trade 2009 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.3
Adam Russell P SDP Trade 2009 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.1
Shawn Hill P SDP Free agency 2009 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Tayron Guerrero P SDP Intl FA 2009 -0.0
Chris Stewart C SDP Free agency 2009 -0.0
Walter Silva P SDP Draft 2009 -0.1
Cliff Floyd OF SDP Free agency 2009 -0.2
Oscar Salazar OF SDP Trade 2009 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Chris Burke 2B/OF SDP Free agency 2009 -0.3
Cody Decker 1B SDP Draft 2009 -0.3
Edwin Moreno P SDP Trade 2009 -0.3
Miles Mikolas P SDP Draft 2009 -0.4
Duaner Sánchez P SDP Free agency 2009 -0.6
Luis Perdomo P SDP Trade 2009 -0.7

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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