Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 1 | 1.1 | WSN | Bryce Harper | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 210 | — | — | Kris Kline | Michael Rizzo | 55.6 | +5.8 | 49.9±4.0 |
| 2010 | 2 | 1.2 | PIT | Jameson Taillon | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 230 | — | — | Greg Smith | Neal Huntington | 18.3 | -0.5 | 18.9±3.8 |
| 2010 | 3 | 1.3 | BAL | Manny Machado | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 218 | — | — | Joe Jordan | Andy MacPhail | 57.3 | +38.4 | 18.9±4.2 |
| 2010 | 4 | 1.4 | KCR | Christian Colón | IF 2B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 215 | — | — | — | Dayton Moore | 0.7 | -20.8 | 21.5±4.1 |
| 2010 | 5 | 1.5 | CLE | Drew Pomeranz | P P | 22 COLL | R/L | 6'5" | 246 | — | — | Brad Grant | Mark Shapiro | 11.6 | +3.0 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2010 | 6 | 1.6 | ARI | Barret Loux | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 230 | — | — | Tom Allison | Jerry Dipoto | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2010 | 7 | 1.7 | NYM | Matt Harvey | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Rudy Terrasas | John Ricco | 15.3 | +7.5 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2010 | 8 | 1.8 | HOU | Delino DeShields | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 5'7" | 190 | — | — | Bobby Heck | Ed Wade | 4.0 | -4.0 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 2010 | 9 | 1.9 | SDP | ✕ Karsten Whitson | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Jaron Madison | Jed Hoyer | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2010 | 10 | 1.10 | OAK | Michael Choice | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 230 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | -2.1 | -10.6 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2010 | 11 | 1.11 | TOR | Deck McGuire | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 220 | — | — | Andrew Tinnish | Alex Anthopoulos | -0.4 | -8.3 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2010 | 12 | 1.12 | CIN | Yasmani Grandal | C C | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'2" | 225 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Walt Jocketty | 40.0 | +23.0 | 17.0±4.1 |
| 2010 | 13 | 1.13 | CHW | Chris Sale | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'6" | 180 | — | — | — | Kenny Williams | 57.5 | +49.6 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2010 | 14 | 1.14 | MIL | ✕ Dylan Covey | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 215 | — | — | Bruce Seid | Douglas Melvin | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2010 | 15 | 1.15 | TEX | Jake Skole | OF CF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2010 | 16 | 1.16 | CHC | Hayden Simpson | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 170 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Jim Hendry | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2010 | 17 | 1.17 | TBR | Josh Sale | OF LF | 19 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 215 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2010 | 18 | 1.18 | ANA | Kaleb Cowart | IF 3B | 18 HS | S/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Eddie Bane | Tony Reagins | -1.7 | -4.4 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2010 | 19 | 1.19 | HOU | Mike Foltynewicz | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 195 | — | — | Bobby Heck | Ed Wade | 5.3 | -0.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2010 | 20 | 1.20 | BOS | Kolbrin Vitek | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Amiel Sawdaye | Theo Epstein | 0.0 | -10.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2010 | 21 | 1.21 | MIN | Alex Wimmers | P P | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Bill Smith | -0.2 | -5.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2010 | 22 | 1.22 | TEX | Kellin Deglan | C C | 18 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 0.0 | -3.6 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 2010 | 23 | 1.23 | MIA | Christian Yelich | DH DH | 19 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | — | Michael Hill | 45.5 | +39.1 | 6.4±3.7 |
| 2010 | 24 | 1.24 | SFG | Gary Brown | OF CF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | John Barr | Brian Sabean | 0.2 | -4.1 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2010 | 25 | 1.25 | STL | Zack Cox | IF 3B | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 225 | — | — | Jeff Luhnow | John Mozeliak | 0.0 | -10.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2010 | 26 | 1.26 | COL | Kyle Parker | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | -1.1 | -5.0 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2010 | 27 | 1.27 | PHI | Jesse Biddle | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'5" | 220 | — | — | Marti Wolever | Ruben Amaro | -0.1 | -2.8 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2010 | 28 | 1.28 | LAD | Zach Lee | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Tim Hallgren | Ned Colletti | -0.1 | -2.8 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2010 | 29 | 1.29 | ANA | Cam Bedrosian | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 225 | — | — | Eddie Bane | Tony Reagins | 2.6 | -0.1 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2010 | 30 | 1.30 | ANA | Chevy Clarke | OF CF | 18 HS | S/R | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | Eddie Bane | Tony Reagins | 0.0 | -2.4 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2010 | 31 | 1.31 | TBR | Justin O'Conner | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 201 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2010 | 32 | 1.32 | NYY | Cito Culver | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.