RRosternomics

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Joe Jordan

Orioles

2005–2011 · 7 drafts · 349 picks

Early-Round Selection
+7.0
#45 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
-12.2
#129 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
+3.2
#61 of 172
+0.46/draft
Hitter DVOS
+36.2
#65 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
153
#50 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
P2475 +40.2
IF658 +35.4
C420 +9.1
OF90 -8.3

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
20103Manny Machado3B 58.611.1 +47.5
2007159Jake ArrietaP 25.20.8 +24.3
20075Matt WietersC 15.59.0 +6.5
200685Zack BrittonP 10.21.0 +9.2
20114Dylan BundyP 10.110.4 -0.3
2011785Zach DaviesP 10.10.1 +10.0
200954Mychal GivensP 5.81.8 +4.0
2005483David HernandezP 5.70.2 +5.4
20084Brian MatuszP 4.510.4 -6.0
2008206Caleb JosephC 4.30.8 +3.5
20081286Oliver DrakeP 1.80.1 +1.7
200561Nolan ReimoldOF 1.71.8 -0.1
2011305Tyler WilsonP 0.70.3 +0.4
2010268Parker BridwellP 0.40.5 -0.1
2006175Jason BerkenP 0.40.8 -0.4

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
2005517.8 21.9-14.1
20065110.0 22.7-12.7
20074840.5 17.8+22.7
2008509.3 23.0-13.7
2009505.6 21.0-15.4
20104959.1 21.3+37.8
20115020.7 22.1-1.4
Total349 153 +3.2

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.