RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Andrew Friedman

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.75× league · TAB +16.4
+16.4TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+17.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-2.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
25%dead money %8th/30
0.593win %2nd/30
47.1roster fWAR3rd/30
+41surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$68Mpayroll $M20th/30

2010: made playoffs · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFB.J. Upton 154GBen Zobrist 14GSean Rodríguez 9G
LFCarl Crawford 147GMatt Joyce 13GGabe Kapler 12G
RFBen Zobrist 103GBrad Hawpe 66GMatt Joyce 52G
SSJason Bartlett 131GReid Brignac 50GSean Rodríguez 5G
2BSean Rodríguez 92GReid Brignac 68GBen Zobrist 55G
3BEvan Longoria 151GSean Rodríguez 7GWilly Aybar 7G
1BCarlos Pena 142GBen Zobrist 14GDan Johnson 13G
STARTERSDavid Price 4.3WARJames Shields 2.2WARMatt Garza 2.0WARJeff Niemann 1.3WARWade Davis 1.1WAR
CJohn Jaso 96GKelly Shoppach 56GDioner Navarro 46G
DHWilly Aybar 69GDan Johnson 18GHank Blalock 14G
BULLPEN★ Rafael Soriano 45svJoaquín Benoit 25hRandy Choate 18hGrant Balfour 16hChad Qualls 11hDan Wheeler 9hLance Cormier 4hAndy Sonnanstine 0h
CJohn Jaso 96 · Kelly Shoppach 56 · Dioner Navarro 46
1BCarlos Pena 142 · Ben Zobrist 14 · Dan Johnson 13
2BSean Rodríguez 92 · Reid Brignac 68 · Ben Zobrist 55
3BEvan Longoria 151 · Sean Rodríguez 7 · Willy Aybar 7
SSJason Bartlett 131 · Reid Brignac 50 · Sean Rodríguez 5
LFCarl Crawford 147 · Matt Joyce 13 · Gabe Kapler 12
CFB.J. Upton 154 · Ben Zobrist 14 · Sean Rodríguez 9
RFBen Zobrist 103 · Brad Hawpe 66 · Matt Joyce 52
DHWilly Aybar 69 · Dan Johnson 18 · Hank Blalock 14
SPDavid Price 4.3 · James Shields 2.2 · Matt Garza 2.0 · Jeff Niemann 1.3 · Wade Davis 1.1
BP★ Rafael Soriano 45 · Joaquín Benoit 25 · Randy Choate 18 · Grant Balfour 16 · Chad Qualls 11 · Dan Wheeler 9 · Lance Cormier 4 · Andy Sonnanstine 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carl Crawford 28 FA-elig 1547.7 10.0 +8.1
Evan Longoria 24 pre-arb 1517.5 0.9 +16.7
David Price 24 pre-arb 324.3 1.8 +8.2
B.J. Upton 25 FA-elig 1543.9 3.0 +6.1
Ben Zobrist 29 arb 1513.8 0.4 +8.5
James Shields 28 arb 342.2 2.5 +2.6
Sean Rodríguez 25 pre-arb 1182.1 0.4 +4.4
Matt Garza 26 arb 332.0 3.4 +1.4
Rafael Soriano 30 FA-elig 641.9 7.2 -2.8
Matt Joyce 25 pre-arb 771.9 0.4 +4.0
Joaquín Benoit 32 – 631.7 0.8 +3.2
Reid Brignac 24 pre-arb 1131.4 0.4 +3.0
Jeff Niemann 27 pre-arb 301.3 1.0 +2.1
Jason Bartlett 30 FA-elig 1351.2 4.0 -1.1
Grant Balfour 32 FA-elig 571.2 2.0 +0.9
John Jaso 26 – 1091.2 0.4 +2.3
Wade Davis 24 pre-arb 291.1 0.4 +2.2
Carlos Pena 32 FA-elig 1441.0 10.1 -7.7
Kelly Shoppach 30 arb 630.6 2.2 -0.9
Jeremy Hellickson 23 – 100.5 – –
Randy Choate 34 FA-elig 850.4 0.7 +0.3
Dan Johnson 30 – 400.1 0.5 -0.2
Chad Qualls↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 270.1 1.6 -1.4
Dan Wheeler 32 FA-elig 640.1 3.5 -3.3
Jake McGee 23 – 80.1 0.4 -0.2
Desmond Jennings 23 – 170.1 0.4 -0.3
Mike Ekstrom 26 pre-arb 150.0 0.4 -0.4
Brad Hawpe↔ COL 31 FA-elig 150.0 1.1 -1.1
Rocco Baldelli 28 – 10-0.0 – –
Dale Thayer 29 – 1-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Hank Blalock 29 – 26-0.1 – –
Andy Sonnanstine 27 arb 41-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Dioner Navarro 26 FA-elig 48-0.2 2.1 -2.6
Pat Burrell↔ SFG 33 FA-elig 24-0.3 1.8 -2.5
Willy Aybar 27 arb 100-0.3 1.4 -2.1
Gabe Kapler 34 FA-elig 59-0.6 1.1 -2.4
Lance Cormier 29 FA-elig 60-0.6 1.2 -2.7

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Sean Rodríguez2.1
Rafael Soriano1.9
Joaquín Benoit1.7
John Jaso1.2
Kelly Shoppach0.6
Jeremy Hellickson0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Gregg Zaun1.2
Akinori Iwamura1.0
Scott Kazmir0.9
J.P. Howell0.7
Gabe Gross0.6
Joe Dillon0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$68.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Carlos Pena329.000$10.1MFREE AGENT$7.2M
Carl Crawford288.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Soriano308.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
Jason Bartlett306.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler3211.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
B.J. Upton256.000$3.0M$4.8M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro266.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Grant Balfour329.000$2.0MFREE AGENT$4.0M$7.0M
Pat Burrell3310.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Chad Qualls316.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Lance Cormier296.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Brad Hawpe316.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Gabe Kapler3412.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Joaquín Benoit3214.040$750kFREE AGENT
Randy Choate3410.000$700kFREE AGENT
Hank Blalock298.000—FREE AGENT
Rocco Baldelli287.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Matt Garza264.000$3.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
James Shields284.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Shoppach305.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Willy Aybar275.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Dan Johnson303.076$500kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist294.000$438kARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Sonnanstine273.000$417kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
David Price242.000$1.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Niemann272.000$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Longoria242.000$950kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Jaso260.032$416kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Joyce252.000$406kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Rodríguez252.000$406kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Davis241.000$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reid Brignac242.000$404kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Ekstrom262.000$403kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dale Thayer291.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Desmond Jennings230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake McGee230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hellickson230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.