RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.23× league · TAB -8.3
-8.3TAB — talent above budget25th/30
-19.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
56%dead money %27th/30
0.401win %26th/30
28.5roster fWAR18th/30
-60surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$155Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFVictor Robles 104GLane Thomas 42GAndrew Stevenson 31G
LFYadiel Hernandez 48GAndrew Stevenson 24GGerardo Parra 19G
RFJuan Soto 144GYadiel Hernandez 13GAndrew Stevenson 11G
SSAlcides Escobar 61GLuis García Jr. 8GJordy Mercer 6G
2BLuis García Jr. 59GJordy Mercer 21GAlcides Escobar 17G
3BStarlin Castro 85GCarter Kieboom 60GJordy Mercer 14G
1BJosh Bell 119GRyan Zimmerman 54GHernán Pérez 2G
STARTERSJoe Ross 1.7WARPaolo Espino 1.2WARErick Fedde 0.8WARPatrick Corbin 0.2WARStephen Strasburg 0.1WAR
CRiley Adams 34GTres Barrera 29GAlex Avila 27G
DHJosh Bell 5GRyan Zimmerman 3GJuan Soto 2G
BULLPEN★ Kyle Finnegan 11svSam Clay 13hAndrés Machado 11hTanner Rainey 10hWander Suero 7hAustin Voth 7hMason Thompson 7hRyne Harper 3h
CRiley Adams 34 · Tres Barrera 29 · Alex Avila 27
1BJosh Bell 119 · Ryan Zimmerman 54 · Hernán Pérez 2
2BLuis García Jr. 59 · Jordy Mercer 21 · Alcides Escobar 17
3BStarlin Castro 85 · Carter Kieboom 60 · Jordy Mercer 14
SSAlcides Escobar 61 · Luis García Jr. 8 · Jordy Mercer 6
LFYadiel Hernandez 48 · Andrew Stevenson 24 · Gerardo Parra 19
CFVictor Robles 104 · Lane Thomas 42 · Andrew Stevenson 31
RFJuan Soto 144 · Yadiel Hernandez 13 · Andrew Stevenson 11
DHJosh Bell 5 · Ryan Zimmerman 3 · Juan Soto 2
SPJoe Ross 1.7 · Paolo Espino 1.2 · Erick Fedde 0.8 · Patrick Corbin 0.2 · Stephen Strasburg 0.1
BP★ Kyle Finnegan 11 · Sam Clay 13 · Andrés Machado 11 · Tanner Rainey 10 · Wander Suero 7 · Austin Voth 7 · Mason Thompson 7 · Ryne Harper 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Juan Soto 22 arb 1516.8 8.5 +13.5
Trea Turner↔ LAD 28 FA-elig 964.4 8.4 +5.8
Josh Bell 28 arb 1442.2 6.3 +0.7
Max Scherzer↔ LAD 36 FA-elig 192.1 21.9 -15.1
Josh Harrison↔ OAK 33 FA-elig 902.1 0.7 +6.1
Yan Gomes↔ OAK 33 FA-elig 632.0 3.7 +2.7
Joe Ross 28 FA-elig 221.7 1.5 +4.0
Kyle Schwarber↔ BOS 28 FA-elig 721.6 4.5 +0.6
Lane Thomas↔ STL 25 pre-arb 451.4 0.2 +4.4
Alcides Escobar 34 FA-elig 751.4 0.3 +4.2
Paolo Espino 34 pre-arb 351.2 0.5 +3.3
Daniel Hudson↔ SDP 34 FA-elig 311.0 3.4 -0.2
Tres Barrera 26 pre-arb 300.8 0.2 +2.3
Erick Fedde 28 pre-arb 290.8 0.6 +1.9
Starlin Castro 31 FA-elig 870.8 7.0 -4.5
Keibert Ruiz↔ LAD 22 pre-arb 230.5 0.1 +1.5
Riley Adams↔ TOR 25 – 350.5 0.2 +1.3
Ryan Zimmerman 36 FA-elig 1100.4 1.0 +0.3
Alex Avila 34 FA-elig 340.4 1.5 -0.3
Patrick Murphy↔ TOR 26 pre-arb 170.3 0.2 +0.7
Adrián Sanchez 30 pre-arb 160.3 0.1 +0.7
Yadiel Hernandez 33 pre-arb 1120.2 0.7 +0.0
Patrick Corbin 31 FA-elig 310.2 24.4 -23.7
Jon Lester↔ STL 37 – 180.2 0.8 -0.2
Gabe Klobosits 26 – 110.2 0.1 +0.4
Brad Hand↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 410.1 6.3 -5.9
Jhon Romero 26 – 50.1 0.0 +0.4
Josiah Gray↔ LAD 23 – 120.1 0.2 +0.2
Kyle Finnegan 29 pre-arb 680.1 0.6 -0.2
Stephen Strasburg 32 FA-elig 50.1 35.0 -34.7
Kyle McGowin 29 pre-arb 270.1 0.5 -0.2
Jordy Mercer 34 FA-elig 460.1 1.0 -0.8
Jakson Reetz 25 – 20.1 0.0 +0.2
Will Harris 36 FA-elig 80.0 8.0 -7.9
Joan Adon 22 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
René Rivera↔ CLE 37 – 40.0 0.1 +0.0
Sean Nolin 31 pre-arb 100.0 0.2 -0.1
Austin Voth 29 pre-arb 490.0 0.6 -0.5
Andrés Machado 28 pre-arb 400.0 0.3 -0.2
Jonathan Lucroy↔ ATL 35 – 50.0 0.0 -0.0
Cody Wilson 24 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Luis Avilán 31 FA-elig 4-0.1 0.9 -1.1
Sam Clay 28 – 58-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Ryne Harper 32 pre-arb 34-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Humberto Arteaga 27 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Josh Rogers 26 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Kyle Lobstein 31 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Alberto Baldonado 28 – 14-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Mason Thompson↔ SDP 23 – 27-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Andrew Stevenson 27 pre-arb 109-0.2 0.5 -1.3
Hernán Pérez 30 FA-elig 10-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Jefry Rodriguez 27 pre-arb 14-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Gerardo Parra 34 FA-elig 53-0.3 1.0 -2.0
Victor Robles 24 pre-arb 107-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Javy Guerra 35 FA-elig 6-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Justin Miller↔ STL 34 – 5-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Tanner Rainey 28 pre-arb 38-0.3 0.4 -1.6
Wander Suero 29 pre-arb 45-0.5 0.5 -1.9
Luis García Jr. 21 – 70-0.7 – –
Carter Kieboom 23 pre-arb 62-1.1 0.2 -3.7

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Josh Bell2.2
Joe Ross1.7
Kyle Schwarber1.6
Lane Thomas1.4
Alcides Escobar1.4
Tres Barrera0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Asdrúbal Cabrera0.4
Aníbal Sánchez0.2
Kurt Suzuki0.1
Sam Freeman0.0
Aaron Barrett-0.0
Jake Noll-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$155.3M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Stephen Strasburg3210.118$35.0MFREE AGENT
Patrick Corbin318.105$24.4MFREE AGENT
Max Scherzer3612.079$21.9MFREE AGENT
Will Harris367.102$8.0MFREE AGENT
Starlin Castro3111.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Brad Hand317.092$6.3MFREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber286.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Yan Gomes338.083$3.7MFREE AGENT
Daniel Hudson3410.106$3.4MFREE AGENT
Alex Avila3411.061$1.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman3614.032$1.0MFREE AGENT
Gerardo Parra3410.145$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jordy Mercer347.156$1.0MFREE AGENT
Luis Avilán317.077$950kFREE AGENT
Jon Lester3714.075$781kFREE AGENT
Josh Harrison338.168$652kFREE AGENT
Alcides Escobar349.082$282kFREE AGENT
Javy Guerra3510.000$100kFREE AGENT
Hernán Pérez309.000$100kFREE AGENT
René Rivera378.107$51kFREE AGENT
Jonathan Lucroy3511.000$31kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Trea Turner284.135$8.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Bell284.053$6.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ross284.018$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Miller343.083$61kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Juan Soto222.134$8.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yadiel Hernandez330.047$686kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Voth291.127$588kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Finnegan291.000$582kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erick Fedde282.099$575kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Stevenson271.127$526kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paolo Espino340.078$506kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Robles242.052$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Clay280.000$501kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wander Suero292.123$465kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle McGowin290.141$460kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Rainey281.158$443kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryne Harper322.020$340kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrés Machado280.032$261kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carter Kieboom231.001$227kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jefry Rodriguez271.089$227kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lane Thomas251.068$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Murphy260.028$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley Adams250.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tres Barrera260.022$191kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Thompson230.000$175kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josiah Gray230.000$167kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Nolin311.100$163kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrián Sanchez301.083$141kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keibert Ruiz220.022$102kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Baldonado28–$98k
Josh Rogers260.143$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabe Klobosits26–$80k
Jhon Romero260.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lobstein311.088$25kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jakson Reetz250.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Wilson24–$9k
Humberto Arteaga270.102$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joan Adon220.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis García Jr.211.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.